The School of Odds
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HNK Rijeka v Strasbourg

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HNK Rijeka (Local)

Prediction 19.42%5.15fair odd
EV +0.026%
Edge +0.005%
Kelly +0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.73%19.41%19.43%20.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.794.805.1523.09%20.89%20.83%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Strasbourg (Visit)

Prediction 54.68%1.83fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.86%54.60%54.67%55.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.721.7660.61%58.30%58.14%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.90%3.86fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -0.850%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.30%25.99%25.90%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.603.7730.30%27.93%27.78%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HNK Rijeka (Local): 19.42%; Strasbourg (Visit): 54.68%; Draw: 25.90%. For HNK Rijeka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.149. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.026%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.78%EV +0.026%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.28%EV -4.32%E -2.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -3.39%E -0.909%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.78%EV +0.026%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.28%EV -4.32%E -2.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -3.39%E -0.909%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 17:40
1xBet🎯5.08I 19.69%NM 18.73%EV -1.33%E -0.263%K -0.327%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -7.05%E -4.15%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.30%EV -2.61%E -0.695%K -0.947%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 17:40
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.27%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.05%EV -4.32%E -2.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -2.87%E -0.766%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:00
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.14%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.00%EV -4.86%E -2.79%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 16:50
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 16:50
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.50%E -3.80%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.78%EV -4.86%E -2.79%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 16:55
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.07%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 16:55
Pinnacle🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.70%EV -5.02%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.74%EV -3.77%E -2.14%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.56%EV -2.36%E -0.625%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.49%EV -5.80%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.96%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 17:39
theScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.56%EV -4.86%E -2.79%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 16:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.80%EV -6.50%E -3.80%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:20
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.61%EV -6.50%E -3.80%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.61%EV -6.50%E -3.80%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 17:30
Bet Victor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.75%EV -7.05%E -4.15%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 17:23
Neds🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.06%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.06%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -9.78%E -5.93%K -15.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -4.32%E -2.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 16:55
Bet Right🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.30%EV -6.50%E -3.80%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-12 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -8.69%E -5.20%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-12 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -8.69%E -5.20%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-12 16:55
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.97%EV -7.60%E -4.49%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 16:50
NordicBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:20
Betsson🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:20
Fliff🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.56%EV -9.69%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.46%EV -8.69%E -5.20%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 17:25
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.05%E -4.15%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-12 17:23
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:20
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:30
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.41%E -3.13%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.99%EV -8.14%E -4.85%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.64%E -3.09%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-12 17:20
PlayUp🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.96%E -3.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-12 17:40
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -8.69%E -5.20%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-12 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.14%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-03-12 17:40