The School of Odds
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FSV Mainz 05 v Strasbourg

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FSV Mainz 05 (Local)

Prediction 41.13%2.43fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%41.15%41.12%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3846.51%43.76%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Strasbourg (Visit)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd
EV -0.796%
Edge -0.234%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.14%29.15%31.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.043.203.203.4032.89%31.21%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.69%3.37fair odd
EV -0.542%
Edge -0.162%
Kelly -0.231%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.71%29.73%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3533.33%31.45%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 (Local): 41.13%; Strasbourg (Visit): 29.18%; Draw: 29.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -0.542%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.10%E -0.883%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.24%EV -11.30%E -3.72%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.86%EV -2.32%E -0.706%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.06%EV -3.34%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV -5.17%E -1.59%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -2.03%E -0.614%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:30
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -3.34%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.71%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:35
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -3.34%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.71%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.34%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.82%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -0.542%E -0.162%K -0.231%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-09 18:15
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -0.796%E -0.234%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.24%EV -3.75%E -1.60%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.07%EV -3.13%E -0.943%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.69%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.24%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.29%EV -4.30%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.47%EV -3.21%E -0.986%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -4.98%E -2.16%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -0.796%E -0.234%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -4.98%E -2.16%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -0.796%E -0.234%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Suprabets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.02%EV -4.98%E -2.16%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.89%EV -4.30%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.73%EV -1.43%E -0.432%K -0.618%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 17:59
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.71%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:25
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -11.01%E -3.61%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.39%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.79%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -0.542%E -0.162%K -0.231%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.66%EV -6.22%E -2.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.43%EV -8.09%E -2.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 18:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -6.63%E -2.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -8.09%E -2.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.17%E -1.59%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:45
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -2.03%E -0.614%K -0.881%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.71%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:40
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.63%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -9.45%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:54
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:30
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:30
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.45%E -3.31%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -3.71%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.51%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.56%E -5.38%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.55%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.93%E -3.64%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-09 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.63%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.55%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.82%0.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.63%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.55%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.82%0.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.84%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55