The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Crystal Palace v Fiorentina

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crystal Palace (Local)

Prediction 60.04%1.67fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -6.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.51%59.96%60.08%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6066.67%63.75%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fiorentina (Visit)

Prediction 15.77%6.34fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.320%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.99%15.82%15.74%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.915.956.4518.18%16.91%16.81%15.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.19%4.13fair odd
EV -0.825%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.266%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%24.21%24.18%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.904.1027.78%25.82%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Crystal Palace (Local): 60.04%; Fiorentina (Visit): 15.77%; Draw: 24.19%. For Fiorentina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.34. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.83%EV -4.54%E -2.86%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.99%EV +1.74%E +0.270%K +0.320%G +0.006%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.83%EV -4.54%E -2.86%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.99%EV +1.74%E +0.270%K +0.320%G +0.006%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.38%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV +0.956%E +0.149%K +0.177%G +0.002%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.52%EV -4.70%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 15.16%EV +0.482%E +0.076%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.50%EV -4.70%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.50%EV -4.54%E -2.86%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.15%EV +0.167%E +0.026%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.35%EV -4.45%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-09 17:40
Suprabets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.31%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.03%EV -0.622%E -0.099%K -0.117%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.66%EV -7.11%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 17:53
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.47%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -1.41%E -0.226%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.28%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.14%EV -1.41%E -0.226%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 17:55
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.66%EV -4.54%E -2.86%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -3.78%E -0.619%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.53%EV -0.825%E -0.201%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-09 18:10
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.63%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.14%E -3.25%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 17:54
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 15:05
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.77%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -4.45%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.07%K -11.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -5.35%E -0.892%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.92%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.11%EV -6.14%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.97%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.92%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.11%EV -6.14%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.97%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.67%EV -3.94%E -2.46%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.46%EV -8.51%E -1.47%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -3.24%E -0.811%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.38%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -8.51%E -1.47%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:55
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.59%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -8.51%E -1.47%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.71%EV -5.14%E -3.25%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -4.45%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 17:55
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 17:55
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.42%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:54
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -9.30%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.01%EV -5.14%E -3.25%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV -11.66%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.34%EV -7.36%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -11.66%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-09 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -11.66%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-09 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -11.66%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-09 18:54
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -5.14%E -3.25%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -13.24%E -2.41%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -13.24%E -2.41%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:54
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -7.54%E -4.90%K -13.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -13.24%E -2.41%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -10.50%E -2.84%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -9.94%E -6.63%K -19.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -13.24%E -2.41%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55