Language:English
AEK Athens v Rayo Vallecano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEK Athens (Local)
Prediction 45.97%2.18fair odd
EV -0.239%
Edge -0.110%
Kelly -0.204%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.74%45.93%46.03%47.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.052.1751.55%49.12%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rayo Vallecano (Visit)
Prediction 27.71%3.61fair odd
EV -0.241%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.093%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.85%27.71%27.75%30.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.323.6032.26%29.74%30.12%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.32%3.80fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.350%
Kelly -0.477%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%26.36%26.22%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.7530.30%28.10%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 45.97%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 27.71%; Draw: 26.32%. For AEK Athens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.17, with an expected value of -0.239%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.74%EV -0.239%E -0.110%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -14.10%E -4.55%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -3.46%E -1.65%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -5.78%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.29%EV -3.92%E -1.87%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.49%EV -2.46%E -0.698%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.22%EV -2.89%E -0.784%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.02%EV -3.92%E -1.87%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.64%EV -3.57%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.55%EV -4.38%E -2.10%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -1.63%E -0.458%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.91%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.09%EV -1.63%E -0.458%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.55%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -4.40%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.55%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -4.40%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.01%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.01%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 18:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.78%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -2.63%E -0.710%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 18:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.52%E -3.10%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -13.16%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -13.16%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -13.16%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.38%EV -6.22%E -3.05%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -0.241%E -0.067%K -0.093%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.38%EV -6.22%E -3.05%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -0.241%E -0.067%K -0.093%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.31%E -0.350%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.68%EV -6.68%E -3.29%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.07%EV -3.01%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.25%EV -5.00%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 17:56 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.46%EV -6.68%E -3.29%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.79%EV -8.00%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.21%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-16 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.94%EV -7.14%E -3.53%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -3.01%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -3.94%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.39%EV -7.59%E -3.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.78%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -6.31%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.99%EV -7.59%E -3.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-16 18:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.78%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 17:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.26%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-16 18:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.55%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.52%E -3.10%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -8.05%E -4.03%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.52%E -3.10%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 18:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.35%E -5.31%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -14.10%E -4.55%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.52%E -3.10%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-16 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.87%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.87%EV -10.81%E -5.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -7.89%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 18:45 |