The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v Barcelona

Kickoff: 2026-03-25 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 10.60%9.44fair odd
EV +11.28%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.69%10.61%10.62%13.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.938.498.5010.5014.43%11.78%11.76%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 76.13%1.31fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -3.24%
Kelly -15.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.25%76.13%76.21%77.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.211.201.2690.09%82.86%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.27%7.53fair odd
EV +6.45%
Edge +0.805%
Kelly +0.919%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 8.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.67%13.26%13.17%15.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.766.508.0216.67%14.80%15.38%12.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 10.60%; Barcelona (Visit): 76.13%; Draw: 13.27%. For Real Madrid (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.44. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV +11.28%E +1.07%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.28%EV -10.17%E -8.62%K -56.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-25 17:38
BoyleSports🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV +0.685%E +0.072%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.06%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -7.08%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-25 17:40
DraftKings🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.64%EV -7.12%E -5.84%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV +6.19%E +0.774%K +0.884%G +0.055%5.6%2026-03-25 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.52%EV -4.84%E -3.87%K -19.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -10.40%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-25 17:39
Coolbet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.84%E -3.87%K -19.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-25 14:45
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:40
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:39
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:40
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:40
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.27%EV -5.60%E -4.52%K -23.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.64%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -7.08%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-25 17:25
Betsson🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.19%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.65%EV -11.07%E -1.65%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-25 17:25
NordicBet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -4.61%E -0.513%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.19%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.65%EV -11.07%E -1.65%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-25 17:25
BetMGM🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.66%EV -7.26%E -0.830%K -0.937%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -7.12%E -5.84%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -3.77%E -0.520%K -0.603%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-25 17:25
Pinnacle🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.33%EV -7.89%E -6.52%K -37.55%G +0.000%8.02I 12.47%NM 11.67%EV +6.45%E +0.805%K +0.919%G +0.059%6.9%2026-03-25 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.16%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.95%EV +2.87%E +0.370%K +0.425%G +0.012%8.0%2026-03-25 17:21
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -7.12%E -5.84%K -32.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -20.36%E -3.39%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-25 17:40
LeoVegas🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -17.04%E -2.73%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-25 17:40
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.64%EV -10.93%E -9.34%K -64.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -7.08%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-25 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.17%EV -9.41%E -7.91%K -49.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -17.04%E -2.73%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-25 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.17%EV -9.41%E -7.91%K -49.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -17.04%E -2.73%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-25 17:39
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.21%EV -12.45%E -10.83%K -83.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.48%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-25 17:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.04%EV -7.12%E -5.84%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -0.448%E -0.060%K -0.069%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-25 17:29
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.68%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.97%EV -7.08%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-25 17:39
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.93%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.83%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-25 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.93%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.83%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-25 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 10.60%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 76.36%EV -15.50%E -13.96%K -140.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.04%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-25 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 11.32%EV -16.27%E -2.06%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.49%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.19%EV -16.38%E -2.60%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-25 17:40
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.73%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-25 17:40
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.73%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-25 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.73%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-25 17:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.73%EV -13.72%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-25 17:40
NetBet (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 75.74%EV -11.69%E -10.08%K -73.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -7.08%E -1.01%K -1.18%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-25 17:40
1xBet🎯6.93I 14.43%NM 13.53%EV -26.55%E -3.83%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.43%EV -4.08%E -3.24%K -15.69%G +0.000%7.79I 12.84%NM 12.04%EV +3.40%E +0.437%K +0.501%G +0.017%6.6%2026-03-25 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%0.8%2026-03-25 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%0.8%2026-03-25 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.74%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%0.8%2026-03-25 17:40
Smarkets◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.55%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%3.2%2026-03-25 17:40