The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arsenal v Chelsea

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arsenal (Local)

Prediction 49.72%2.01fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -6.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.80%49.61%49.77%51.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.831.9058.14%54.57%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelsea (Visit)

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.313%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.86%25.85%25.82%27.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.9232.26%28.70%28.57%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.547%
Kelly -0.729%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.41%24.54%24.41%25.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.743.754.0029.41%26.76%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arsenal (Local): 49.72%; Chelsea (Visit): 25.82%; Draw: 24.45%. For Chelsea (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.39%EV -9.50%E -5.22%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.86%EV +1.23%E +0.313%K +0.421%G +0.005%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.75%EV -7.57%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-24 19:49
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -10.50%E -5.83%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -1.87%E -0.492%K -0.668%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -11.97%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-24 19:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.84%EV -9.50%E -5.22%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.81%EV -3.68%E -0.986%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-24 19:38
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.36%EV -7.02%E -3.75%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -5.74%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-24 19:49
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.88%EV -9.50%E -5.22%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -5.74%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -4.63%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-24 19:54
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.69%EV -5.53%E -2.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.04%E -1.95%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.08%EV -4.14%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-24 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.04%E -1.95%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -8.30%E -2.21%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-24 19:35
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.04%E -1.95%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.52%E -2.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-24 19:34
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.04%E -1.95%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.52%E -2.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-24 19:35
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -7.02%E -3.75%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.04%E -1.95%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.97%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-24 19:14
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%EV -6.52%E -3.47%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.16%EV -7.29%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.89%EV -3.90%E -0.992%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-24 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -6.52%E -3.47%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -8.33%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.19%E -0.547%K -0.729%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-24 19:35
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.75%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -8.33%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.52%E -2.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-24 19:52
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.94%EV -7.52%E -4.04%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-24 19:34
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-24 19:35
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-24 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-24 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-24 19:35
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.863%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-24 19:35
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -8.30%E -2.21%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-24 19:50
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-24 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.62%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-24 19:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -12.98%E -7.42%K -17.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -10.91%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -11.97%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-24 19:34
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.20%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.30%E -2.21%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-24 19:50
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -10.50%E -5.83%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -12.20%E -3.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -5.85%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-24 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.01%EV -11.49%E -6.46%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -13.49%E -4.03%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-24 19:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.01%EV -11.49%E -6.46%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -13.49%E -4.03%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -7.08%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-24 19:34
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -9.52%E -2.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-24 19:50
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-24 19:54
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-24 19:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-24 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -9.01%E -4.92%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -14.78%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-24 19:54
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.35%EV -10.50%E -5.83%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -16.07%E -4.95%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -14.41%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-24 19:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -8.01%E -4.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -17.36%E -5.43%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -11.97%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-24 19:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 48.53%EV -14.48%E -8.42%K -20.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.92%EV -19.95%E -6.43%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.55%EV -16.86%E -4.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-24 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-03-24 19:55
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%1.7%2026-03-24 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%1.7%2026-03-24 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%1.7%2026-03-24 19:54