Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sparta Prague v Lyon

Início: 2026-08-04 18:00 UTC

Final: Sparta Prague 2–1 Lyon

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (9 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sparta Prague (Local)

Previsão 31.78%3.15odd justa
EV +3.29%
Vantagem +1.01%
Kelly +1.46%
Crescimento +0.048%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.76%31.92%31.95%34.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.703.023.003.2537.04%33.12%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lyon (Visitante)

Previsão 40.95%2.44odd justa
EV -1.72%
Vantagem -0.716%
Kelly -1.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.74%41.01%40.84%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.932.192.152.4051.81%45.64%46.51%41.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.27%3.67odd justa
EV +0.885%
Vantagem +0.239%
Kelly +0.328%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.53%27.07%27.21%27.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.493.503.7030.77%28.65%28.57%27.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sparta Prague (Local): 31.78%; Lyon (Visitante): 40.95%; Empate: 27.27%. Para Sparta Prague (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.15. 12 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.29%.

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:54
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV +3.29%E +1.01%K +1.46%G +0.048%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -15.23%E -7.36%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:55
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV +1.71%E +0.533%K +0.775%G +0.013%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -16.05%E -7.83%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-04 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV +1.71%E +0.533%K +0.775%G +0.013%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -16.05%E -7.83%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-04 17:55
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV +1.71%E +0.533%K +0.775%G +0.013%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.20%EV -16.46%E -8.07%K -15.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -3.20%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV +0.116%E +0.037%K +0.054%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -17.28%E -8.55%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV +0.116%E +0.037%K +0.054%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -17.28%E -8.55%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.32%EV -1.47%E -0.475%K -0.701%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.90%EV -5.11%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.47%E -0.475%K -0.701%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -11.96%E -5.56%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV +0.885%E +0.239%K +0.328%G +0.003%5.8%2026-08-04 17:40
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -1.47%E -0.475%K -0.701%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -11.96%E -5.56%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.512%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -3.06%E -1.00%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -20.97%E -10.86%K -22.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-04 17:54
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.65%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.91%E -4.50%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-04 17:50
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.65%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -9.91%E -4.50%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.66%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 17:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -4.65%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -14.00%E -6.67%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -3.20%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-04 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.08%EV -5.60%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.38%EV -3.36%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.08%EV -5.60%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.38%EV -3.36%E -1.42%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 17:54
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.40%EV -6.24%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.67%EV -3.77%E -1.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.92%EV -3.20%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 17:54
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.15%EV -6.24%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.77%E -1.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -5.93%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -6.24%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.91%E -4.50%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 17:54
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -7.19%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.93%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -7.19%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.93%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 17:55
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.81%E -2.53%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -5.93%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.86%E -3.49%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-04 17:55
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.96%E -5.56%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-04 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -14.00%E -6.67%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -11.38%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-04 17:50
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -9.42%E -3.30%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -1.72%E -0.716%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 17:55
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -9.42%E -3.30%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -9.91%E -4.50%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -3.20%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 17:55
1xBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.73%EV -10.37%E -3.68%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.14%EV -2.95%E -1.24%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.13%EV -0.751%E -0.206%K -0.284%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:55
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -14.00%E -6.67%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-04 17:49
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -6.63%E -2.91%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.42%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-04 17:54
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.19%E -5.25%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-04 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.19%E -5.25%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.29%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-04 17:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73%0.2%2026-08-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.69%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.73%0.2%2026-08-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-08-04 17:55