The School of Odds
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KF Egnatia v NK Celje

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 19:00 UTC

Final: KF Egnatia 3–3 NK Celje

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KF Egnatia (Local)

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.811%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%27.46%27.44%28.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.453.7532.26%28.72%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NK Celje (Visit)

Prediction 45.32%2.21fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.37%45.28%45.27%47.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.002.022.1054.64%50.02%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.21%3.68fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%27.26%27.29%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.353.5031.75%29.68%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KF Egnatia (Local): 27.48%; NK Celje (Visit): 45.32%; Draw: 27.21%. For KF Egnatia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:45
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:44
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:35
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:44
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV +3.04%E +0.811%K +1.11%G +0.034%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -12.09%E -6.23%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV +1.67%E +0.450%K +0.617%G +0.010%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -13.45%E -7.04%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-22 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV +1.67%E +0.450%K +0.617%G +0.010%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -13.45%E -7.04%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-22 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.59%EV -2.46%E -0.692%K -0.963%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.70%EV -17.07%E -9.33%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -14.30%E -4.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-22 18:44
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-22 18:14
1xBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.22%EV -8.01%E -3.95%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.96%EV -5.32%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-22 18:14
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 18:19
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.93%EV -8.01%E -3.95%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 18:14
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.82%EV -4.38%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.20%EV -8.46%E -4.19%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.98%EV -5.86%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 18:04
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 17:59
BetUS🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.27%EV -6.68%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.27%EV -6.68%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 18:14
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.37%E -4.68%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-22 18:14
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.58%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 18:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -5.74%E -2.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 18:24
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -5.74%E -2.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 18:25
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -4.84%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 18:13
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 18:19
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -7.10%E -3.47%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 18:15
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.77%EV -8.46%E -4.19%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-22 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.37%E -4.68%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-22 18:14
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.45%EV -10.28%E -5.19%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-22 18:44
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.07%E -3.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.37%E -4.68%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.22%E -3.10%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-22 18:14
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.86%EV -11.64%E -5.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -11.58%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-22 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-07-22 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-07-22 18:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-07-22 18:45