The School of Odds

FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat

2026-07-15 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FK Sutjeska Nikšić (Local)

Prediction 25.51%3.92fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.535%
Kelly -0.724%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.28%25.43%25.46%26.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.603.603.8429%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Kairat (Visit)

Prediction 50.33%1.99fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%50.43%50.23%51.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.831.851.9060%55%54%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.16%4.14fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.64%24.14%24.32%25.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.773.803.9028%27%26%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -2.05%E -0.535%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -9.40%E -5.22%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.77%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 17:55
Betr (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -4.37%E -2.30%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 18:15
PlayUp3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -5.63%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.40%E -5.22%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -13.01%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-10 19:15
BetOnline.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -6.90%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 18:10
LowVig.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -6.90%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 18:10
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -5.38%E -2.86%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -6.97%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 16:25
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -8.18%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.09%EV -10.91%E -6.17%K -14.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-10 18:09
Bet Right3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.45%E -2.66%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.34%EV -6.38%E -3.43%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.60%E -2.86%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 18:14
SportsBet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -5.88%E -3.14%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 16:25
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -5.88%E -3.14%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -8.18%E -2.15%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 16:24
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -10.73%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -9.39%E -2.50%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-10 16:23
Unibet (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.01%EV -12.00%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.35%EV -15.44%E -9.19%K -22.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%EV -11.81%E -3.23%K -4.46%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-10 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-07-10 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-07-10 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.44%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.11%196.1%2026-07-10 18:40