Language:English
Fenerbahce v Lyon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fenerbahce (Local)
Prediction 46.19%2.16fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.69%46.23%46.13%47.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.022.1251.28%49.29%49.50%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lyon (Visit)
Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV +0.218%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.41%26.50%26.65%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.403.7831.25%28.97%29.41%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.101%
Kelly -0.139%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%27.28%27.22%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.6531.25%29.50%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce (Local): 46.19%; Lyon (Visit): 26.51%; Draw: 27.30%. For Lyon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.218%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.28%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.64%EV +0.218%E +0.058%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.08%EV -2.28%E -0.636%K -0.883%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.52%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.41%EV -0.843%E -0.225%K -0.308%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.07%EV -4.19%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.18%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -3.23%E -0.885%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.80%EV -3.00%E -1.43%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -4.55%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 18:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -4.55%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -0.368%E -0.101%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -4.55%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.23%EV -4.74%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 18:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -4.55%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.23%EV -4.74%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 18:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -9.00%E -4.57%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.55%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.03%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.95%EV -5.35%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.02%EV -2.82%E -0.793%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.39%EV -2.08%E -0.979%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.11%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.39%EV -2.08%E -0.979%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.11%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.10%E -0.872%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.23%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -4.38%E -2.12%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-18 18:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -6.69%E -3.31%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-18 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -6.69%E -3.31%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-18 18:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -1.73%E -0.481%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.38%E -2.12%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.19%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.38%E -2.12%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.19%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-18 18:13 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -3.00%E -1.43%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-18 18:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.97%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.56%E -2.55%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.97%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.56%E -2.55%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.97%EV -5.31%E -2.59%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.56%E -2.55%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-18 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.77%EV -6.69%E -3.31%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.77%EV -6.69%E -3.31%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -7.62%E -3.81%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -12.51%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.93%E -5.09%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -13.83%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -7.19%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-18 18:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.69%EV -8.54%E -4.31%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -15.16%E -4.74%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.69%EV -8.54%E -4.31%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -15.16%E -4.74%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-18 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.51% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62% | 0.6% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.28% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.14% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58% | 0.7% | 2026-08-18 18:55 |