The School of Odds

Fenerbahce v Górnik Zabrze

2026-07-21 18:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fenerbahce (Local)

Prediction 74.70%1.34fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -15.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.73%74.60%74.72%76.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.181.241.251.2885%81%80%78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Górnik Zabrze (Visit)

Prediction 8.72%11.47fair odd
EV +0.248%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.024%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.08%8.79%8.71%9.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
8.7010.3210.0011.5011%10%10%9%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 16.58%6.03fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.451%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.80%16.61%16.57%18.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.955.525.506.2020%18%18%16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -10.36%E -8.63%K -51.79%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -8.47%E -0.807%K -0.891%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV +2.80%E +0.451%K +0.538%G +0.015%9.0%2026-07-18 04:05
Bovada1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.38%E -3.42%K -15.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -0.518%E -0.086%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 06:10
Neds1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -0.518%E -0.086%K -0.104%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 04:04
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -4.11%E -0.374%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -4.66%E -0.811%K -0.982%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 04:05
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.18%EV -8.86%E -7.26%K -40.29%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -8.47%E -0.807%K -0.891%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.09%EV -5.49%E -0.964%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 04:05
FanDuel1.21I 82.64%NM 75.33%EV -9.61%E -7.94%K -45.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -8.47%E -0.807%K -0.891%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.99%EV -5.49%E -0.964%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 04:04
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.91%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -4.11%E -0.374%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.57%EV -6.32%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 04:05
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.21%EV -7.37%E -5.94%K -30.70%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.29%EV -1.93%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -6.32%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 04:04
Coolbet1.26I 79.37%NM 74.42%EV -5.87%E -4.66%K -22.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -4.11%E -0.374%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 04:05
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 04:05
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 04:05
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 04:05
BoyleSports1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.86%E -7.26%K -40.29%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -21.55%E -2.39%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-18 04:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.36%E -8.63%K -51.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-18 04:05
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.36%E -8.63%K -51.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.81%E -1.60%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-18 04:05
Bet Right1.25I 80.00%NM 73.36%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -12.95%E -2.47%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 04:05
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.62%E -5.30%K -26.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -12.83%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 04:05
Unibet (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 72.91%EV -11.85%E -10.04%K -65.84%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 9.89%EV -24.16%E -2.78%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.21%EV -17.10%E -3.42%K -4.27%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-18 04:05
NordicBet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.15%EV -5.13%E -4.04%K -18.99%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.08%EV +0.248%E +0.022%K +0.024%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.77%EV -17.93%E -3.62%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 04:05
Betsson1.27I 78.74%NM 73.15%EV -5.13%E -4.04%K -18.99%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.08%EV +0.248%E +0.022%K +0.024%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.77%EV -17.93%E -3.62%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 68.39%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%40.6%2026-07-18 05:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 68.39%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%40.6%2026-07-18 05:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 68.39%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 15.81%40.6%2026-07-18 05:35