The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Fenerbahce v Górnik Zabrze

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 18:00 UTC

Final: Fenerbahce 1–0 Górnik Zabrze

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fenerbahce (Local)

Prediction 78.85%1.27fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -3.12%
Kelly -17.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.44%78.75%78.94%80.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.171.171.2290.91%85.68%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Górnik Zabrze (Visit)

Prediction 6.63%15.08fair odd
EV +23.03%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.302%

assuming max odds 18.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.07%6.57%6.61%8.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.6014.0314.0018.558.62%7.13%7.14%5.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.52%6.89fair odd
EV +9.35%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 7.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.62%14.67%14.45%16.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.636.757.5318.18%15.09%14.81%13.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce (Local): 78.85%; Górnik Zabrze (Visit): 6.63%; Draw: 14.52%. For Górnik Zabrze (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.08. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.44%EV -5.39%E -4.49%K -26.93%G +0.000%18.55I 5.39%NM 5.07%EV +23.03%E +1.24%K +1.31%G +0.302%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.48%EV -17.08%E -2.99%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.83%EV -5.39%E -4.49%K -26.93%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +19.38%E +1.08%K +1.14%G +0.221%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -20.13%E -3.66%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.83%EV -5.39%E -4.49%K -26.93%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +19.38%E +1.08%K +1.14%G +0.221%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -20.13%E -3.66%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 17:55
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +9.43%E +0.572%K +0.608%G +0.057%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -7.06%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:40
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +9.43%E +0.572%K +0.608%G +0.057%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -7.06%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:40
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -10.12%E -8.87%K -72.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -0.517%E -0.034%K -0.037%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%8.7%2026-07-21 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -5.39%E -4.49%K -26.93%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%6.9%2026-07-21 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -8.54%E -7.36%K -53.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%7.6%2026-07-21 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -8.54%E -7.36%K -53.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%7.6%2026-07-21 17:50
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -9.33%E -8.11%K -62.18%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%8.4%2026-07-21 17:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.92%EV -9.33%E -8.11%K -62.18%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.52%EV -1.25%E -0.184%K -0.215%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 17:50
PlayUp🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -7.75%E -6.62%K -45.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -12.87%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-21 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -10.12%E -8.87%K -72.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -1.98%E -0.293%K -0.344%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-21 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -10.12%E -8.87%K -72.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -1.98%E -0.293%K -0.344%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-21 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -10.90%E -9.65%K -83.88%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -7.15%E -0.511%K -0.550%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV +1.65%E +0.236%K +0.276%G +0.005%9.9%2026-07-21 17:55
Bovada🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -4.60%E -3.80%K -21.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -1.98%E -0.293%K -0.344%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -6.17%E -5.19%K -32.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.96%E -5.90%K -38.68%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.96%E -5.90%K -38.68%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -6.96%E -5.90%K -38.68%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.87%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.58%EV -10.12%E -8.87%K -72.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -1.98%E -0.293%K -0.344%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.61%EV -12.48%E -11.24%K -113.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.59%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-21 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 79.75%EV -13.27%E -12.06%K -132.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.75%EV -13.78%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.50%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-21 17:50
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.54%EV -6.96%E -5.90%K -38.68%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.51%EV -17.10%E -1.37%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +5.29%E +0.729%K +0.846%G +0.045%6.5%2026-07-21 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.44%EV -3.81%E -3.12%K -17.31%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.61%EV -18.76%E -1.53%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.94%EV -15.05%E -2.57%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 17:55
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -6.96%E -5.90%K -38.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -20.41%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.16%EV -12.48%E -11.24%K -113.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV -20.41%E -1.70%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.52%EV -5.61%E -0.862%K -1.02%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-21 17:55
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.19%EV -5.39%E -4.49%K -26.93%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.19%EV -23.07%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.53I 13.28%NM 12.62%EV +9.35%E +1.24%K +1.43%G +0.134%5.2%2026-07-21 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%0.5%2026-07-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-07-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-07-21 17:55