The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Kairat v PFC Levski Sofia

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Kairat 0–1 PFC Levski Sofia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Kairat (Local)

Prediction 27.06%3.70fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.877%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.04%27.04%27.03%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.263.303.5834.48%30.68%30.30%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PFC Levski Sofia (Visit)

Prediction 41.51%2.41fair odd
EV +0.858%
Edge +0.353%
Kelly +0.600%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%41.50%41.53%42.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.282.282.4345.87%43.80%43.86%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.44%3.18fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.819%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.62%31.46%31.44%32.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.973.003.1035.71%33.66%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Kairat (Local): 27.06%; PFC Levski Sofia (Visit): 41.51%; Draw: 31.44%. For PFC Levski Sofia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.858%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -14.78%E -4.69%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.13%EV +0.858%E +0.353%K +0.600%G +0.005%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -2.54%E -0.819%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -14.78%E -4.69%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.13%EV +0.858%E +0.353%K +0.600%G +0.005%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -2.54%E -0.819%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 14:44
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -1.22%E -0.512%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.11%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:45
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -1.22%E -0.512%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.11%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -1.22%E -0.512%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-11 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -1.22%E -0.512%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-11 14:45
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.86%EV -1.22%E -0.512%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-11 14:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -20.19%E -6.84%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.87%EV -3.71%E -1.60%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -7.25%E -2.46%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-11 14:44
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -20.19%E -6.84%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.87%EV -3.71%E -1.60%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -7.25%E -2.46%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-11 14:44
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.41%EV -20.19%E -6.84%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.66%EV -3.71%E -1.60%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.93%EV -8.83%E -3.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-11 14:44
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.08%EV -4.12%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.01%EV -3.80%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-11 14:54
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -6.66%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -4.54%E -1.97%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.11%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-11 14:54
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.54%E -1.97%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -4.11%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-11 14:50
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -10.72%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.54%E -1.97%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-11 14:49
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -10.72%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.54%E -1.97%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-11 14:45
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.54%E -1.97%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.83%E -3.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-11 14:54
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.66%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -5.37%E -2.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 14:50
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.66%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.31%EV -5.37%E -2.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 14:44
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -17.48%E -5.73%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -5.37%E -2.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -2.54%E -0.819%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 14:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -21.54%E -7.43%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.79%EV -5.37%E -2.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.71%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-11 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -21.54%E -7.43%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.79%EV -5.37%E -2.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.71%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-11 14:45
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -5.31%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.61%E -2.94%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.11%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 14:54
Bet Right🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.61%E -2.94%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 14:50
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -6.61%E -2.94%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.40%E -3.65%K -5.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -6.61%E -2.94%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -10.40%E -3.65%K -5.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.59%EV -3.14%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.50%EV -7.03%E -3.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.91%EV -3.17%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.59%EV -3.14%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.50%EV -7.03%E -3.14%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.91%EV -3.17%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 14:55
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.83%E -3.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-11 14:44
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-11 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-11 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.01%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.45%E -3.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-11 14:54
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -13.42%E -4.19%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -5.68%E -1.89%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-11 14:54
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.07%E -3.71%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -8.83%E -3.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-11 14:50
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -10.72%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.97%E -4.27%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-11 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -10.72%E -3.25%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.69%E -3.95%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.97%E -4.27%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-11 14:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -3.14%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.77%EV -9.52%E -4.37%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -6.00%E -2.01%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 14:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-11 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-11 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-11 14:55