The School of Odds

FC Kairat v FK Sutjeska Nikšić

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Kairat 2–1 FK Sutjeska Nikšić

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Kairat (Local)

Prediction 79.13%1.26fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -15.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.63%79.46%79.07%82.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.101.161.151.2290.91%86.43%86.96%81.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FK Sutjeska Nikšić (Visit)

Prediction 6.34%15.77fair odd
EV +6.23%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.395%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 16.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.58%6.29%6.36%7.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.7115.0016.758.00%6.80%6.67%5.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 14.53%6.88fair odd
EV +21.29%
Edge +2.55%
Kelly +2.90%
Growth +0.617%

assuming max odds 8.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.05%14.24%14.57%15.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.756.867.008.3517.39%14.57%14.29%11.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.12I 89.29%NM 82.36%EV -11.37%E -10.15%K -94.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%8.35I 11.98%NM 11.05%EV +21.29%E +2.55%K +2.90%G +0.617%8.4%2026-07-08 14:20
LowVig.ag1.12I 89.29%NM 82.36%EV -11.37%E -10.15%K -94.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%8.35I 11.98%NM 11.05%EV +21.29%E +2.55%K +2.90%G +0.617%8.4%2026-07-08 14:20
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Casumo1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Unibet (NL)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Unibet (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Grosvenor1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Svenska Spel1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
betPARX1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +1.47%E +0.092%K +0.098%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%6.5%2026-07-08 14:30
Unibet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -10.58%E -9.36%K -81.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +8.94%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.123%8.5%2026-07-08 14:15
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 79.54%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.51%EV -20.72%E -1.66%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +5.31%E +0.733%K +0.850%G +0.045%6.5%2026-07-08 14:40
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%7.9%2026-07-08 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.99%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%7.9%2026-07-08 14:29
FanDuel1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -9.79%E -8.59%K -69.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%8.7%2026-07-08 14:49
LiveScore Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -10.58%E -9.36%K -81.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%9.4%2026-07-08 14:30
Virgin Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -10.58%E -9.36%K -81.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%9.4%2026-07-08 14:30
SportsBet1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -10.58%E -9.36%K -81.39%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV +1.68%E +0.240%K +0.280%G +0.005%9.9%2026-07-08 14:49
Betr (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.78%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.95%EV -1.95%E -0.289%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 14:55
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -1.95%E -0.289%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 14:55
Tipico (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -11.37%E -10.15%K -94.76%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -2.68%E -0.400%K -0.470%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-08 14:55
BetUS1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.24%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -5.58%E -0.859%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 14:55
Bet Right1.16I 86.21%NM 78.88%EV -8.21%E -7.07%K -51.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -17.55%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -5.58%E -0.859%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-08 14:55
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 79.61%EV -12.16%E -10.96%K -110.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -17.55%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.59%EV -5.58%E -0.859%K -1.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-08 14:50
PMU (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 80.14%EV -12.95%E -11.78%K -129.54%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.30%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -5.58%E -0.859%K -1.02%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-08 14:30
Bovada1.22I 81.97%NM 77.98%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.72%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -9.21%E -1.47%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 14:53
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.24%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -11.21%E -0.801%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -12.85%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-08 14:55
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -17.55%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.85%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-08 14:55
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -17.55%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.85%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-08 14:55
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -17.55%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.85%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-08 14:55
Marathon Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 78.57%EV -5.83%E -4.90%K -30.70%G +0.000%16.75I 5.97%NM 5.58%EV +6.23%E +0.372%K +0.395%G +0.025%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.85%EV -14.30%E -2.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 14:55
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -5.83%E -4.90%K -30.70%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -8.04%E -0.555%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -14.30%E -2.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-08 14:55
Betsson1.17I 85.47%NM 78.79%EV -7.42%E -6.34%K -43.62%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.59%EV +4.64%E +0.281%K +0.300%G +0.014%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.62%EV -14.30%E -2.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-08 14:49
PlayUp1.18I 84.75%NM 77.89%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.80%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -4.87%E -0.325%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -16.48%E -2.87%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-08 14:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.36%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.41%0.7%2026-07-08 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.36%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.41%0.7%2026-07-08 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.36%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.41%0.7%2026-07-08 14:55