The School of Odds
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FC Ararat-Armenia v Riga FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Ararat-Armenia 2–0 Riga FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Ararat-Armenia (Local)

Prediction 36.76%2.72fair odd
EV -0.752%
Edge -0.278%
Kelly -0.442%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.21%36.66%36.75%38.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.582.582.7043.48%38.76%38.76%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Riga FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.37%2.91fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.56%34.60%34.28%36.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.602.7641.67%38.25%38.46%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.538%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%28.74%28.97%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.4033.33%31.45%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ararat-Armenia (Local): 36.76%; Riga FC (Visit): 34.37%; Draw: 28.87%. For FC Ararat-Armenia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -0.752%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:50
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:50
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:45
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:50
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -0.752%E -0.278%K -0.442%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -1.83%E -0.538%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 15:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -14.77%E -5.96%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-07 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -14.77%E -5.96%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-07 15:45
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 15:49
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 15:50
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-07 15:50
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -5.16%E -2.00%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.45%EV -6.86%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.36%EV -8.18%E -2.57%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 15:55
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.95%EV -5.16%E -2.00%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.61%EV -7.90%E -2.95%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-07 15:45
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-07 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-07 15:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.65%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-07 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -17.52%E -7.30%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-07 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -6.63%E -2.61%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -5.15%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 15:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -6.63%E -2.61%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -5.15%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.01%EV -7.37%E -2.92%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -5.83%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -7.03%E -2.18%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-07 15:55
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -7.37%E -2.92%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -6.52%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.05%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-07 15:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-07 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-07 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-07 15:55
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 15:34
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -6.16%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-07 15:35
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -9.96%E -3.80%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-07 15:34
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.10%EV -12.51%E -5.26%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -14.08%E -5.63%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-07 15:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -15.46%E -6.72%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-07 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-07-07 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.04%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-07-07 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-07-07 15:50