Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid

2026-10-20 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfB Stuttgart (Local)

Predicción 33.33%3.00momio equitativo
EV +0.326%
Ventaja +0.108%
Kelly +0.162%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.36%33.23%33.39%34.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.782.753.0137.04%36.02%36.36%33.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 41.36%2.42momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -2.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.06%41.39%41.52%42.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.252.252.3545.45%44.35%44.44%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.31%3.95momio equitativo
EV +1.23%
Ventaja +0.308%
Kelly +0.410%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.34%25.38%25.09%26.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.633.504.0028.57%27.52%28.57%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 33.33%; Atlético Madrid (Visitante): 41.36%; Empate: 25.31%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.95. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.23%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.46%EV -2.80%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.36%EV +1.23%E +0.308%K +0.410%G +0.005%2.6%2026-10-14 22:10
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.71%EV +0.326%E +0.108%K +0.162%G +0.001%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%EV -4.04%E -1.74%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.86%EV +0.218%E +0.055%K +0.074%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-14 22:34
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.90%EV -2.67%E -0.916%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.14%EV -5.70%E -2.50%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -2.57%E -0.666%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.71%EV -2.34%E -0.799%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.40%EV -6.52%E -2.89%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -2.57%E -0.666%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-14 22:24
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.52%EV -2.34%E -0.799%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.54%EV -7.35%E -3.28%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.94%EV -3.32%E -0.870%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.36%EV -2.01%E -0.683%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.97%EV -3.58%E -0.939%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 22:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.36%EV -2.01%E -0.683%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.97%EV -3.58%E -0.939%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.45%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 22:45
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -3.34%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 23:34
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-14 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 22:10
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 22:10
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-14 22:24
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -3.83%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 23:30
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-14 22:09
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 23:30
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 22:09
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 22:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.52%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.80%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-14 22:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 00:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 00:20
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-14 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.89%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-14 22:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.30%EV -9.01%E -3.30%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.95%EV -8.18%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.75%EV -10.66%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-14 22:10
Caesars🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -2.80%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 00:46
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 22:24
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 22:25
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-14 23:45
ReBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.28%EV -6.52%E -2.89%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-14 22:15
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-14 22:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 00:35
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-14 22:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-10-15 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-10-15 01:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-10-15 01:05
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 32.59%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%4.4%2026-10-15 00:50
Matchbook◎2.82I 35.46%NM 32.50%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%9.1%2026-10-14 22:14