The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v PSV Eindhoven

2026-11-24 20:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 78.05%1.28fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -9.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.24%78.05%77.98%80.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.201.201.2588.50%83.45%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visit)

Prediction 9.25%10.81fair odd
EV +20.27%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.343%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.40%9.21%9.40%11.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.5310.5013.0012.50%9.50%9.52%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.70%7.87fair odd
EV +5.42%
Edge +0.653%
Kelly +0.743%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 8.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.61%12.74%12.62%14.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.337.508.3016.00%13.64%13.33%12.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Real Madrid (Local): 78.05%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 9.25%; Draw: 12.70%. For PSV Eindhoven (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.81. 16 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +20.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.98%EV -7.12%E -5.99%K -37.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +20.27%E +1.56%K +1.69%G +0.343%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.61%EV +5.42%E +0.653%K +0.743%G +0.040%3.8%2026-11-05 12:34
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.18%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.40%EV +20.27%E +1.56%K +1.69%G +0.343%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.42%EV -1.56%E -0.202%K -0.231%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-05 12:38
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -7.91%E -6.70%K -43.92%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.62%EV +15.65%E +1.25%K +1.36%G +0.213%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.62%EV +4.15%E +0.507%K +0.577%G +0.024%4.9%2026-11-05 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60%EV -4.00%E -3.25%K -17.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.16%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.61%E +0.202%K +0.230%G +0.004%2.1%2026-11-05 07:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60%EV -4.00%E -3.25%K -17.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.16%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.61%E +0.202%K +0.230%G +0.004%2.1%2026-11-05 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60%EV -4.00%E -3.25%K -17.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.16%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.61%E +0.202%K +0.230%G +0.004%2.1%2026-11-05 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60%EV -4.00%E -3.25%K -17.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.16%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24%EV +1.61%E +0.202%K +0.230%G +0.004%2.1%2026-11-05 07:45
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-05 08:30
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 79.25%EV -3.22%E -2.60%K -13.43%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.47%EV +7.32%E +0.631%K +0.691%G +0.051%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%EV +1.61%E +0.202%K +0.230%G +0.004%1.8%2026-11-05 07:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.23%EV -7.12%E -5.99%K -37.50%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +6.40%E +0.556%K +0.609%G +0.039%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-05 08:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.65%EV -4.78%E -3.92%K -21.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.72%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.63%EV -3.47%E -0.456%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-05 07:45
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -5.56%E -4.60%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 07:45
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -5.56%E -4.60%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 07:45
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -5.56%E -4.60%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 07:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -5.56%E -4.60%K -26.49%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-05 08:35
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.91%E -6.70%K -43.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-05 11:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -2.86%E -0.272%K -0.301%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-05 07:45
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -2.86%E -0.272%K -0.301%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-05 07:45
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -2.86%E -0.272%K -0.301%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-05 07:45
GTbets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.23%EV -2.44%E -1.95%K -9.77%G +0.000%10.42I 9.60%NM 9.26%EV -3.60%E -0.345%K -0.382%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.50%EV -9.18%E -1.28%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-05 07:45
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.13%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-05 07:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-05 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-05 07:45
TABtouch🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.58%EV -7.12%E -5.99%K -37.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-05 07:45
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.31%EV -5.56%E -4.60%K -26.49%G +0.000%9.86I 10.14%NM 9.61%EV -8.78%E -0.890%K -0.991%G +0.000%7.84I 12.76%NM 12.09%EV -0.419%E -0.053%K -0.061%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-05 07:45
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.74%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-05 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.06%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -11.09%E -1.58%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-05 07:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.13%EV -8.69%E -7.42%K -51.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.50%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -14.26%E -2.11%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-05 07:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.55%EV -11.81%E -10.45%K -90.83%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.47%EV -14.42%E -1.56%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.98%EV -14.26%E -2.11%K -2.48%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-05 08:12
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.47%EV -7.12%E -5.99%K -37.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -16.73%E -1.86%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.74%E -0.632%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-05 11:00
ReBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.95%EV -6.34%E -5.29%K -31.72%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.24%EV -17.66%E -1.98%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.81%EV -16.17%E -2.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-05 07:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 76.46%EV -11.81%E -10.45%K -90.83%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.05%EV -20.43%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.50%EV -18.71%E -2.92%K -3.46%G +0.000%15.7%2026-11-05 08:35
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.12%EV -7.91%E -6.70%K -43.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.57%EV -21.36%E -2.51%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.31%EV -14.26%E -2.11%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-05 09:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.24%EV -8.69%E -7.42%K -51.09%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.67%EV -23.67%E -2.87%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.09%EV -20.61%E -3.30%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-05 07:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 75.94%EV -9.47%E -8.16%K -59.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -25.99%E -3.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.05%EV -14.26%E -2.11%K -2.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-05 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 73.93%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.28%5.80I 17.24%NM 14.79%16.6%2026-11-05 07:45
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.26%GTbets 1.25 (80.2%) / NordicBet 13.00 (7.7%) / NordicBet 8.30 (12.1%)Show all 4 combinations
Real Madrid (Local)PSV Eindhoven (Visit)DrawMargin
GTbets🎯 1.25 (80.2%)NordicBet🎯 13.00 (7.7%)NordicBet🎯 8.30 (12.1%)+0.260%
GTbets🎯 1.25 (80.2%)Coolbet🎯 13.00 (7.7%)NordicBet🎯 8.30 (12.1%)+0.260%
GTbets🎯 1.25 (80.1%)NordicBet🎯 13.00 (7.7%)Betsson🎯 8.20 (12.2%)+0.113%
GTbets🎯 1.25 (80.1%)Coolbet🎯 13.00 (7.7%)Betsson🎯 8.20 (12.2%)+0.113%