The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Paris Saint Germain v Liverpool

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Saint Germain (Local)

Prediction 48.99%2.04fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.84%48.94%49.07%51.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.911.912.0056.50%52.45%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liverpool (Visit)

Prediction 26.49%3.78fair odd
EV +7.80%
Edge +1.92%
Kelly +2.54%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%26.56%26.42%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.504.0730.77%28.41%28.57%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV +0.539%
Edge +0.132%
Kelly +0.174%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.50%24.50%24.50%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.813.804.1030.77%26.21%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris Saint Germain (Local): 48.99%; Liverpool (Visit): 26.49%; Draw: 24.52%. For Liverpool (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27%EV -5.94%E -3.09%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 24.19%EV +7.80%E +1.92%K +2.54%G +0.198%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.55%EV -1.67%E -0.416%K -0.554%G +0.000%1.6%2026-03-19 00:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.93%EV -4.96%E -2.56%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.36%EV +1.18%E +0.309%K +0.419%G +0.005%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.71%EV -3.87%E -0.988%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 09:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV +0.652%E +0.172%K +0.233%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 00:10
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.18%EV -4.96%E -2.56%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.31%EV -0.143%E -0.038%K -0.052%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-19 06:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -6.92%E -3.64%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-19 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.34%EV -13.29%E -7.51%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -0.672%E -0.179%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.43%EV -8.78%E -2.36%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 00:23
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 00:30
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-19 12:44
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-19 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-19 12:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-19 12:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%EV -9.86%E -5.36%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 00:10
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.56%EV -2.02%E -1.01%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV +0.539%E +0.132%K +0.174%G +0.001%3.0%2026-03-19 11:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.57%EV -3.98%E -2.03%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.63%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 05:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.57%EV -3.98%E -2.03%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.63%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 05:35
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -4.47%E -2.29%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 08:00
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 13:20
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 13:16
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.92%E -3.64%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.638%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 13:19
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.58%EV -12.80%E -7.19%K -16.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.21%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-19 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.37%EV -11.33%E -6.26%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.68%EV -7.82%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.96%EV -12.21%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-19 00:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.35%EV -10.84%E -5.95%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -10.50%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-19 00:10
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.47%E -2.29%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.47%E -2.29%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.47%E -2.29%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.47%E -2.29%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 07:45
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 13:20
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.43%E -3.37%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -9.37%E -5.06%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-19 13:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -9.37%E -5.06%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.95%E -3.65%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-19 07:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.22%EV -10.35%E -5.65%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.19%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -20.30%E -6.25%K -9.02%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-19 13:19
Suprabets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -6.92%E -3.64%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.06%EV -13.39%E -4.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.65%EV -4.86%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-19 07:31
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.02%E -1.01%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -5.59%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 22:25
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.02%E -1.01%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -5.59%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-18 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%11.7%2026-03-19 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%11.7%2026-03-19 15:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%11.7%2026-03-19 15:24
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 35.31%1.57I 63.69%NM 43.40%3.20I 31.25%NM 21.29%46.8%2026-03-19 15:23