Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona

2026-10-20 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Paris Saint Germain (Local)

Predicción 39.47%2.53momio equitativo
EV -2.11%
Ventaja -0.850%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.74%39.46%39.55%41.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.342.352.4843.86%42.67%42.55%40.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Barcelona (Visitante)

Predicción 38.07%2.63momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.396%
Kelly -0.643%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.62%37.91%38.21%39.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.472.452.6041.67%40.44%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.46%4.45momio equitativo
EV -0.044%
Ventaja -0.010%
Kelly -0.013%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.34%22.63%22.24%24.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.024.004.4527.03%24.90%25.00%22.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Paris Saint Germain (Local): 39.47%; Barcelona (Visitante): 38.07%; Empate: 22.46%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.452. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 4.450, con un valor esperado de -0.044%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%EV -2.11%E -0.850%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 38.08%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 22.16%EV -0.044%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%1.4%2026-10-15 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.12%EV -3.69%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -1.03%E -0.396%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.17%EV -11.27%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-14 22:09
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.74%EV -4.48%E -1.85%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.16%EV -4.07%E -1.62%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.11%EV -2.29%E -0.526%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.48%E -1.85%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.55%EV -5.98%E -2.42%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.09%EV -3.19%E -0.740%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 22:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.48%E -1.85%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.55%EV -5.98%E -2.42%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.09%EV -3.19%E -0.740%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.79%EV -4.87%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.06%EV -4.07%E -1.62%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.15%EV -2.74%E -0.633%K -0.823%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 00:05
GTbets🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.56%EV -4.87%E -2.02%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.67%EV -1.03%E -0.396%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.77%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 22:14
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.51%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.39%EV -1.03%E -0.396%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%EV -1.17%E -0.265%K -0.343%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-14 22:25
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.59%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.60%E -2.26%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.41%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -3.41%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-15 01:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -3.41%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-14 23:39
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.35%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 00:46
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -12.40%E -3.18%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 22:09
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.27%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.41%E -0.794%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-15 01:40
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.82%EV -5.66%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.69%EV -6.36%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.49%EV -0.493%E -0.111%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 00:00
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.40%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.27%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.66%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-15 00:08
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.35%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -2.74%E -0.633%K -0.823%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 00:10
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.09%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.66%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 01:38
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 23:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 23:30
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-14 23:30
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -6.06%E -2.54%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -4.84%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 23:30
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.70%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.08%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -5.66%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 00:00
picklebet_au🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -4.84%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-14 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.86%EV -5.98%E -2.42%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.41%EV -16.22%E -4.35%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 22:10
ReBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 38.89%EV -7.63%E -3.26%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.84%EV -5.98%E -2.42%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-14 22:15
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.39%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.62%EV -1.03%E -0.396%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -2.74%E -0.633%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 01:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -4.54%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 00:04
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.52%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -4.84%E -1.93%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.66%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 00:04
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -5.66%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-15 01:34
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -2.74%E -0.633%K -0.823%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.69%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -7.91%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.69%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.64%E -3.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -7.91%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 01:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.78%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-15 00:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.06%EV -9.21%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.67%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -16.89%E -4.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 22:10
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -6.74%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.77%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.06%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-10-15 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.37%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87%1.6%2026-10-15 01:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.37%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87%1.6%2026-10-15 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.37%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87%1.6%2026-10-15 01:40
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 39.82%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%6.4%2026-10-15 00:35