Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli v Arsenal

2026-09-09 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli (Local)

Prediction 24.30%4.11fair odd
EV +0.124%
Edge +0.030%
Kelly +0.040%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%24.31%24.28%26.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.773.754.1230.77%26.54%26.67%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arsenal (Visit)

Prediction 49.71%2.01fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.40%49.75%49.70%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.901.911.9758.82%52.66%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -0.927%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%25.95%26.01%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.553.7530.30%28.18%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Napoli (Local): 24.30%; Arsenal (Visit): 49.71%; Draw: 25.99%. For Napoli (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.12, producing a positive expected value of +0.124%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.12I 24.27%NM 23.65%EV +0.124%E +0.030%K +0.040%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.23%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.12%EV -3.07%E -0.823%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -0.362%E -0.088%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.26%EV -4.06%E -2.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.08%EV -3.33%E -0.895%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 19:44
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -0.362%E -0.088%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.84%EV -5.55%E -2.92%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 20:30
Pinnacle🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.43%EV -1.58%E -0.389%K -0.517%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.21%EV -6.05%E -3.20%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:55
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -2.79%E -0.698%K -0.931%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.81%EV -3.06%E -1.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV -2.55%E -0.680%K -0.927%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-29 18:30
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.79%E -0.698%K -0.931%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.04%E -3.76%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 20:29
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.79%E -0.698%K -0.931%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.03%E -4.34%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 20:25
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -2.79%E -0.698%K -0.931%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.03%E -4.93%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 18:50
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 18:50
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 18:50
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.55%E -2.92%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.55%E -2.92%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 18:50
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:55
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.05%E -2.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 00:00
Suprabets🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 23.66%EV -5.71%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.89%EV -8.53%E -4.64%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.45%EV -9.83%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 19:49
GTbets🎯3.87I 25.84%NM 24.77%EV -5.95%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.67%EV -2.07%E -1.05%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.56%EV -6.19%E -1.71%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 18:30
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -6.44%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.12%EV -7.04%E -3.76%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 22:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.27%EV -4.06%E -2.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.85%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -3.06%E -1.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 18:29
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.87%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -3.06%E -1.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 18:30
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.87%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -5.55%E -2.92%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -10.08%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -6.54%E -3.48%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 22:55
theScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.08%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -7.04%E -3.76%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.06%E -1.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.06%E -1.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 20:50
betPARX🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:50
BetRivers🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:50
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 20:55
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 21:00
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -3.56%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 21:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.92%EV -11.30%E -3.10%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.35%EV -15.49%E -9.11%K -22.13%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.73%EV -8.27%E -2.34%K -3.27%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-29 19:03
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -12.51%E -3.48%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.35%EV -7.54%E -4.05%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -5.15%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 19:00
ReBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -12.51%E -3.48%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.83%EV -7.54%E -4.05%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 19:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.51%E -3.48%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -13.01%E -7.43%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -10.35%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.65%EV -9.53%E -5.23%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-29 19:00
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -16.16%E -4.68%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.67%EV -6.54%E -3.48%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 20:50
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -17.37%E -5.11%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.40%EV -5.55%E -2.92%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.35%E -3.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.10%EV -21.02%E -6.47%K -9.34%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 48.20%EV -12.51%E -7.11%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.70%EV -14.24%E -4.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-29 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-08-29 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-08-29 20:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.09%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53%1.9%2026-08-29 20:55
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 25.63%1.79I 55.87%NM 47.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.41%16.5%2026-08-30 01:05