Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich v Arsenal

2026-10-21 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 44.20%2.26fair odd
EV -0.544%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.10%44.22%44.19%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.092.2550.00%47.86%47.85%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arsenal (Visit)

Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.355%
Kelly -0.512%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.10%30.41%30.44%32.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.053.2534.48%32.68%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -0.500%
Edge -0.128%
Kelly -0.171%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.02%25.37%25.37%26.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.9229.41%27.71%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayern Munich (Local): 44.20%; Arsenal (Visit): 30.41%; Draw: 25.38%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.92, with an expected value of -0.500%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.29%EV -0.544%E -0.242%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%EV -2.28%E -0.591%K -0.799%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-14 23:04
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.18%EV -1.43%E -0.640%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.69%EV -2.37%E -0.738%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.13%EV -0.500%E -0.128%K -0.171%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-14 22:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -2.75%E -1.25%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -2.75%E -1.25%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-14 23:04
GTbets🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.73%EV -3.64%E -1.67%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.42%EV -1.46%E -0.450%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -9.89%E -2.79%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.18%EV -4.08%E -1.88%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.73%EV -5.11%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.10%EV -3.04%E -0.795%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 22:35
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.03%EV -2.67%E -0.835%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.28%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 23:39
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.33%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.26%EV -4.19%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 23:40
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.00%EV -6.63%E -2.16%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -2.28%E -0.591%K -0.799%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:45
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 00:46
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 23:05
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-14 23:19
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -10.28%E -3.48%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-14 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-14 23:03
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -10.28%E -3.48%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-14 23:04
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -4.96%E -2.31%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-14 23:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.66%EV -5.85%E -2.75%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -1.15%E -0.355%K -0.512%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -2.67%E -0.835%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-14 22:09
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 22:45
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 23:30
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-14 23:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-14 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-14 23:30
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.76%E -2.92%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-14 23:30
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -8.06%E -3.87%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -4.19%E -1.33%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 23:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.21%EV -8.50%E -4.11%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.89%E -2.79%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-14 23:37
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-14 23:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-14 23:25
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.80%E -4.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-14 23:30
picklebet_au🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.16%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-14 22:10
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.35%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.52%EV -6.32%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.13%EV -11.67%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-14 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.70%E -4.03%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-14 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.10%EV -5.11%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -11.16%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-14 22:10
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:34
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:35
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.49%EV -10.71%E -5.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.46%EV -7.24%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -12.43%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-14 23:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.59%E -5.80%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -5.71%E -1.84%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -11.16%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-15 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%4.0%2026-10-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%4.0%2026-10-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 42.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%4.0%2026-10-15 00:15
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.67%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%7.4%2026-10-15 00:30
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 42.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%8.6%2026-10-14 22:14