Language:English
Samsunspor v Goztepe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Samsunspor (Local)
Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.348%
Kelly +0.499%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.48%30.61%30.56%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.093.103.3036.36%32.40%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Goztepe (Visit)
Prediction 42.58%2.35fair odd
EV -0.353%
Edge -0.151%
Kelly -0.264%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.44%42.66%42.58%45.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.3450.00%46.62%46.51%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%26.73%26.86%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.503.6833.33%28.78%28.57%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Samsunspor (Local): 30.65%; Goztepe (Visit): 42.58%; Draw: 26.77%. For Samsunspor (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV +1.15%E +0.348%K +0.499%G +0.006% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -11.43%E -5.49%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV +1.15%E +0.348%K +0.499%G +0.006% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -11.43%E -5.49%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -12.28%E -5.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -0.385%E -0.119%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -12.70%E -6.20%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-16 16:56 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -1.92%E -0.599%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -13.98%E -6.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.96%EV -2.22%E -0.697%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.05%EV -5.46%E -2.46%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.00%EV -5.25%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -3.45%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -14.83%E -7.42%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -3.45%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -14.83%E -7.42%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -3.45%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -14.83%E -7.42%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -3.76%E -1.20%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.18%EV -8.02%E -3.71%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.85%EV -4.37%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.41%EV -3.33%E -1.47%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 16:57 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.19%E -1.86%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 16:57 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.39%EV -9.30%E -4.36%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 16:57 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.98%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.39%EV -9.30%E -4.36%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.26%EV -5.90%E -1.92%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.42%EV -8.87%E -4.14%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.32%EV -5.52%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.26%EV -5.90%E -1.92%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.42%EV -8.87%E -4.14%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.32%EV -5.52%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -4.61%E -2.06%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -4.19%E -1.86%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -10.57%E -5.04%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 26.96%EV -9.80%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 16:57 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.14%EV -7.44%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.48%EV -0.353%E -0.151%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.38%EV -1.50%E -0.409%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.52%EV -3.76%E -1.66%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.52%EV -3.76%E -1.66%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -4.19%E -1.86%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.05%E -2.68%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.58%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -9.58%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -10.57%E -5.04%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -10.34%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.11%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -14.35%E -4.48%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.57%E -5.04%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-16 16:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -11.73%E -4.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -14.83%E -7.42%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -19.70%E -6.57%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -14.18%E -5.06%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -6.32%E -2.87%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -2.31%E -0.632%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -15.71%E -5.71%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.44%E -3.93%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.72% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.66% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.62% | 0.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.72% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.66% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.62% | 0.2% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.50% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.68% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.53% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78% | 0.9% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.15% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02% | 1.4% | 2026-05-16 17:00 |