The School of Odds

Samsunspor v Goztepe

2026-08-17 18:30 UTC — Turkey Super League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Samsunspor (Local)

Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.964%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.34%41.55%42.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.202.3550.00%45.55%45.45%42.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Goztepe (Visit)

Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd
EV -0.910%
Edge -0.275%
Kelly -0.394%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.32%30.68%30.34%35.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.633.003.003.3138.02%33.38%33.33%30.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.47%3.51fair odd
EV +5.35%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.12%27.99%28.11%29.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.233.253.7034.48%30.94%30.77%27.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -2.26%E -0.964%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.34%EV -21.27%E -8.09%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV +5.35%E +1.45%K +1.98%G +0.106%7.6%2026-07-26 15:50
Betsson2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -2.26%E -0.964%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.34%EV -21.27%E -8.09%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV +5.35%E +1.45%K +1.98%G +0.106%7.6%2026-07-26 15:50
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -4.34%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -3.19%E -0.938%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 16:00
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.69%E -2.85%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.61%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 15:50
1xBet2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50%EV -2.68%E -1.15%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.34%EV -0.910%E -0.275%K -0.394%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%EV -5.18%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 19:20
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.42%E -2.85%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.04%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 17:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.46%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 18:45
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.46%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 19:10
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -1.21%E -0.367%K -0.526%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.88%E -2.78%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 15:50
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 41.99%EV -8.09%E -3.66%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -2.71%E -0.833%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.46%EV -10.31%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 15:50
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -14.74%E -7.19%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.36%EV -11.69%E -3.96%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -13.15%E -4.31%K -6.42%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-26 15:50
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -16.18%E -5.78%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -14.58%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-26 15:49
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.05%EV -14.74%E -7.19%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -16.00%E -5.42%K -8.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 15:50
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 42.37%EV -15.57%E -7.67%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.48%EV -9.59%E -3.18%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.15%EV -16.00%E -5.42%K -8.21%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-26 15:49
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.82%EV -16.82%E -8.41%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.34%EV -14.68%E -5.15%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.84%EV -17.43%E -6.01%K -9.17%G +0.000%19.6%2026-07-26 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-26 19:25
Arbitrage (10 combinations) +0.21%NordicBet 2.35 (42.6%) / 1xBet 3.31 (30.3%) / NordicBet 3.70 (27.1%)Show all 10 combinations
Samsunspor (Local)Goztepe (Visit)DrawMargin
NordicBet 2.35 (42.6%)1xBet 3.31 (30.3%)NordicBet 3.70 (27.1%)+0.209%
NordicBet 2.35 (42.6%)1xBet 3.31 (30.3%)Betsson 3.70 (27.1%)+0.209%
Betsson 2.35 (42.6%)1xBet 3.31 (30.3%)NordicBet 3.70 (27.1%)+0.209%
Betsson 2.35 (42.6%)1xBet 3.31 (30.3%)Betsson 3.70 (27.1%)+0.209%
NordicBet 2.35 (42.6%)Tipico (DE) 3.30 (30.3%)NordicBet 3.70 (27.1%)+0.117%
NordicBet 2.35 (42.6%)Tipico (DE) 3.30 (30.3%)Betsson 3.70 (27.1%)+0.117%
Betsson 2.35 (42.6%)Tipico (DE) 3.30 (30.3%)NordicBet 3.70 (27.1%)+0.117%
Betsson 2.35 (42.6%)Tipico (DE) 3.30 (30.3%)Betsson 3.70 (27.1%)+0.117%
1xBet 2.34 (42.7%)1xBet 3.31 (30.2%)NordicBet 3.70 (27.0%)+0.026%
1xBet 2.34 (42.7%)1xBet 3.31 (30.2%)Betsson 3.70 (27.0%)+0.026%