Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genclerbirligi SK v Goztepe

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genclerbirligi SK (Local)

Prediction 28.99%3.45fair odd
EV +6.97%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%29.00%28.95%30.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.153.6933.33%31.40%31.75%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Goztepe (Visit)

Prediction 40.83%2.45fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.06%40.81%40.85%42.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.272.272.3850.00%44.13%44.05%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.18%3.31fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.585%
Kelly -0.845%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%30.19%30.21%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.2535.71%32.43%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genclerbirligi SK (Local): 28.99%; Goztepe (Visit): 40.83%; Draw: 30.18%. For Genclerbirligi SK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 26.28%EV +6.97%E +1.89%K +2.59%G +0.181%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.34%EV -6.51%E -2.84%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.38%EV -6.73%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 11:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV +0.016%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -2.83%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 11:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV +0.016%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.69%EV -2.83%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 11:09
Pinnacle🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -1.43%E -0.422%K -0.597%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.01%EV -3.65%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.53%EV -4.32%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 11:09
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.43%E -0.422%K -0.597%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 11:00
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -1.90%E -0.585%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 07:40
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -1.90%E -0.585%K -0.845%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-03 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.61%EV -5.28%E -2.28%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 11:09
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 11:09
Everygame🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -7.94%E -2.60%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 11:14
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 10:50
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -10.18%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -13.07%E -4.54%K -6.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 10:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.10%EV -7.33%E -3.23%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 11:20
GTbets🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.97%EV -6.36%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.34%EV -5.28%E -2.28%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.94%E -2.60%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 05:54
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.06%E -1.73%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.41%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 10:50
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.41%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.41%E -1.07%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 18:25
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.55%EV -7.33%E -3.23%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 11:20
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 01:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -18.35%E -9.17%K -18.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -15.48%E -5.53%K -8.60%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-04 10:30
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -8.68%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -4.06%E -1.73%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -1.90%E -0.585%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 09:00
NordicBet🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 29.70%EV -9.26%E -2.96%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.60%EV -6.51%E -2.84%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.70%EV -5.52%E -1.76%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 11:14
Betsson🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 29.70%EV -9.26%E -2.96%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.60%EV -6.51%E -2.84%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.70%EV -5.52%E -1.76%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 11:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:50
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 09:01
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.18%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 11:10
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.18%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-03 05:10
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.06%EV -11.41%E -5.26%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -10.96%E -3.71%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 11:08
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.18%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -13.07%E -4.54%K -6.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-04 11:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.28%EV -12.22%E -5.69%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -10.96%E -3.71%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-04 11:09
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:49
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 09:01
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.74%EV -10.18%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 11:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -13.03%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 10:49
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -13.03%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -8.96%E -4.02%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -7.94%E -2.60%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -13.03%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -8.96%E -4.02%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -7.94%E -2.60%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 10:49
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -13.03%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -8.96%E -4.02%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -7.94%E -2.60%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-04 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-04 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-04 11:20
Matchbook3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-04-04 11:19
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 27.92%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.06%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.02%2.3%2026-04-04 11:20