Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray v Goztepe

Inicio: 2026-08-29 18:33 UTC

Final: Galatasaray 3–2 Goztepe

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray (Local)

Predicción 74.55%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.83%
Ventaja -2.97%
Kelly -13.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.39%74.49%74.59%76.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.251.251.2983.33%80.02%79.68%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Goztepe (Visitante)

Predicción 9.58%10.44momio equitativo
EV +6.09%
Ventaja +0.550%
Kelly +0.605%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.64%9.59%9.55%11.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.649.6811.0812.50%10.38%10.34%9.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 15.88%6.30momio equitativo
EV +3.19%
Ventaja +0.491%
Kelly +0.581%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.53%15.92%15.86%17.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.305.775.806.5018.87%17.34%17.24%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Galatasaray (Local): 74.55%; Goztepe (Visitante): 9.58%; Empate: 15.88%. Para Goztepe (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.44. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.08, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.09%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.06%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%11.08I 9.03%NM 8.65%EV +6.09%E +0.550%K +0.605%G +0.037%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.29%EV -0.458%E -0.073%K -0.087%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 18:26
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.50%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +5.33%E +0.484%K +0.533%G +0.028%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 17:40
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.32%E -4.19%K -19.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +5.33%E +0.484%K +0.533%G +0.028%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -8.71%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 18:15
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.29%EV -3.83%E -2.97%K -13.21%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +0.541%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.46%EV -0.300%E -0.048%K -0.057%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 18:26
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.52%EV -5.32%E -4.19%K -19.71%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +0.541%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.35%EV -0.776%E -0.124%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.52%EV -5.32%E -4.19%K -19.71%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +0.541%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.35%EV -0.776%E -0.124%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 16:10
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +0.541%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.18%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV +0.541%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.94%EV -7.13%E -1.22%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 18:25
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.89%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.05I 9.95%NM 9.39%EV -3.77%E -0.375%K -0.416%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:26
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:15
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:26
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:26
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:26
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.71%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 17:40
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 18:10
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -9.05%E -7.42%K -41.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -4.25%E -0.425%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 18:03
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.12%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%9.97I 10.03%NM 9.52%EV -4.53%E -0.455%K -0.505%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.36%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 17:45
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.47%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -6.64%E -0.681%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -8.71%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.56%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.34%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -8.08%E -0.841%K -0.939%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 17:45
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +3.19%E +0.491%K +0.581%G +0.019%5.9%2026-08-29 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -5.32%E -4.19%K -19.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 17:45
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.75%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.90%EV -8.30%E -6.75%K -36.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 18:26
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.90%EV -8.30%E -6.75%K -36.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 18:26
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.68%EV -8.30%E -6.75%K -36.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.54%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.78%EV -14.27%E -2.64%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 18:26
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.54%E -8.78%K -52.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.54%E -8.78%K -52.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -9.03%E -0.951%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:25
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.81%E -5.45%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.04%EV -8.30%E -6.75%K -36.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -8.71%E -1.52%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.38%EV -9.80%E -8.10%K -46.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.75%EV -15.86%E -2.99%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.38%EV -9.80%E -8.10%K -46.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -13.82%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.75%EV -15.86%E -2.99%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.39%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%8.92I 11.21%NM 10.39%EV -14.59%E -1.64%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.22%EV -14.59%E -2.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.39%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%8.92I 11.21%NM 10.39%EV -14.59%E -1.64%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.22%EV -14.59%E -2.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.62%EV -9.80%E -8.10%K -46.65%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.18%EV -16.22%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.20%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.92%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:26
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.92%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -9.05%E -7.42%K -41.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -12.68%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.18%EV -9.80%E -8.10%K -46.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.42%EV -18.61%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.40%EV -14.27%E -2.64%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-29 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -7.56%E -6.10%K -31.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -23.40%E -2.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -4.74%E -0.791%K -0.949%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.38%EV -9.05%E -7.42%K -41.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -23.40%E -2.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -7.92%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 17:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.35%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.67%0.2%2026-08-29 18:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.97%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.23%0.4%2026-08-29 18:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.72%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%0.5%2026-08-29 18:25
Matchbook◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.64%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-08-29 18:25
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74%1.7%2026-08-29 18:25
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.99%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.56%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%1.8%2026-08-29 18:26