Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galatasaray v Çorum FK

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:30 UTC

Final: Galatasaray 2–2 Çorum FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galatasaray (Local)

Prediction 70.17%1.43fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.79%70.13%70.22%72.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.331.3880.00%75.74%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Çorum FK (Visit)

Prediction 11.20%8.93fair odd
EV +3.58%
Edge +0.387%
Kelly +0.434%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 9.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.47%11.21%11.04%12.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.238.259.2514.29%12.15%12.12%10.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.63%5.37fair odd
EV +7.11%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.39%18.67%18.75%20.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.145.055.7523.09%19.47%19.80%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galatasaray (Local): 70.17%; Çorum FK (Visit): 11.20%; Draw: 18.63%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.37. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 17:59
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 17:59
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 18:00
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.106%6.1%2026-08-14 17:59
GTbets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%7.74I 12.92%NM 12.08%EV -13.33%E -1.72%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 17.61%EV -1.09%E -0.205%K -0.252%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.35%EV -10.18%E -7.95%K -36.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.97%EV -10.88%E -8.57%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -16.02%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -1.27%E -0.240%K -0.296%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 17:59
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.22%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.55%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV +0.778%E +0.086%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 18:19
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 18:15
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +0.778%E +0.086%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.29%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -2.21%E -0.420%K -0.519%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.08%EV -12.66%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.07%EV -12.28%E -9.83%K -49.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.02%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.08%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-14 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.07%EV -12.28%E -9.83%K -49.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.02%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.08%EV -3.14%E -0.603%K -0.747%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-14 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.51%EV -4.56%E -3.35%K -12.67%G +0.000%9.13I 10.95%NM 10.50%EV +2.23%E +0.245%K +0.275%G +0.006%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.99%EV -5.93%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.17%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.47%EV +3.58%E +0.387%K +0.434%G +0.016%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.37%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.17%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.31%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.47%EV +3.58%E +0.387%K +0.434%G +0.016%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.37%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 18:10
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:15
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -4.82%E -0.567%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-14 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.03%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.48%EV -0.342%E -0.038%K -0.043%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.07%E -6.16%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -8.73%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.21%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -7.62%E -0.924%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.59%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:23
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.39%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.19%EV -7.62%E -0.924%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -11.52%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:18
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.15%EV -11.58%E -9.19%K -44.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -10.42%E -1.30%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-14 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.60%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.77%EV -13.22%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.62%EV -13.38%E -2.88%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 18:23
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.02%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 18:25
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.72%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.52I 11.74%NM 10.89%EV -4.60%E -0.540%K -0.611%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -15.24%E -3.35%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:19
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.72%EV -5.26%E -3.90%K -15.04%G +0.000%8.52I 11.74%NM 10.89%EV -4.60%E -0.540%K -0.611%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -15.24%E -3.35%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.02%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -16.18%E -3.59%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-14 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -6.67%E -5.01%K -20.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -21.62%E -3.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -19.34%E -4.47%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-14 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 74.88%9.40I 10.64%NM 11.23%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.89%-5.3%2026-08-14 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 70.37%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.41%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.22%0.1%2026-08-14 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 70.22%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.61%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.17%0.3%2026-08-14 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 70.22%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.61%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.17%0.3%2026-08-14 18:25
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.52%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%0.6%2026-08-14 18:25