La escuela de los momios

Fenerbahce v Besiktas JK

Inicio: 2026-04-05 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fenerbahce (Local)

Predicción 48.90%2.05momio equitativo
EV -4.16%
Ventaja -2.12%
Kelly -4.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.98%48.92%48.89%50.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.781.891.891.9656.18%53.01%52.91%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Besiktas JK (Visitante)

Predicción 24.72%4.05momio equitativo
EV +4.55%
Ventaja +1.07%
Kelly +1.41%
Crecimiento +0.064%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.93%24.74%24.74%26.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.763.754.2329.41%26.61%26.67%23.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.39%3.79momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.280%
Kelly -0.381%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.23%26.34%26.37%27.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.513.553.7532.26%28.49%28.17%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.93%EV +4.55%E +1.07%K +1.41%G +0.064%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.09%EV -5.53%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 16:55
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.39%EV +2.07%E +0.502%K +0.663%G +0.014%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-05 16:55
LowVig.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 49.96%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40%EV +1.33%E +0.325%K +0.430%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 16:55
BetOnline.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 49.96%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40%EV +1.33%E +0.325%K +0.430%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 16:55
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -1.14%E -0.285%K -0.379%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -3.69%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 16:55
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -8.56%E -4.58%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -2.37%E -0.601%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 16:54
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.50%EV -2.37%E -0.601%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:55
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.50%EV -2.37%E -0.601%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:55
GTbets1.92I 52.08%NM 49.44%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.22%EV -4.48%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 16:55
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 16:35
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 16:40
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -3.61%E -0.926%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:55
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.15%EV -4.60%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -8.17%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 16:35
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.10%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.69%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 16:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.65%E -2.38%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 11:25
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 16:53
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 16:50
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 16:53
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 16:54
Coolbet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.28%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -1.05%E -0.280%K -0.381%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 16:24
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -1.05%E -0.280%K -0.381%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 16:25
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.65%E -2.38%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 16:50
Betsson1.91I 52.36%NM 48.73%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.44%EV -7.12%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 16:34
NordicBet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.73%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.44%EV -7.12%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 16:34
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
Grosvenor1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.11%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:35
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.03%EV -4.16%E -2.12%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 16:55
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 16:49
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.01%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 16:25
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -8.07%E -4.29%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.55%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 16:35
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 16:14
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.13%EV -12.96%E -7.28%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.96%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.91%EV -14.24%E -4.38%K -6.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-05 16:44
Virgin Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.91%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-05 16:35
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.91%EV -10.03%E -5.45%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-05 16:35
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 49.05%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.02%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-05 16:35
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 10:44
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -11.02%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.24%E -4.38%K -6.33%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-05 16:55
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 48.30%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -12.26%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 16:24
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -9.54%E -5.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.28%EV -12.75%E -3.61%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.48%EV -11.08%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 16:31
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -7.09%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -6.33%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-05 16:15
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.65%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 16:45
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.16%EV -7.58%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -14.73%E -4.27%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.92%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 16:30
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 47.93%EV -9.05%E -4.87%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -15.97%E -4.70%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -8.97%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -15.97%E -4.70%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -18.20%E -5.87%K -8.67%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-05 16:53
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-04-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-04-05 16:55
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-04-05 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-04-05 16:55
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.90%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-04-05 16:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-04-05 16:45