L’École des cotes

Basaksehir v Samsunspor

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-09 17:02 UTC

Score final : Basaksehir 3–0 Samsunspor

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Basaksehir (Local)

Prévision 53.03%1.89cote équitable
EV -2.43%
Avantage -1.32%
Kelly -2.89%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.84

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.76%53.01%53.02%54.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.641.731.741.8460.98%57.65%57.47%54.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Samsunspor (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.76%4.39cote équitable
EV +0.132%
Avantage +0.030%
Kelly +0.039%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.34%22.67%22.84%23.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.114.104.4027.78%24.34%24.39%22.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.21%4.13cote équitable
EV -0.723%
Avantage -0.176%
Kelly -0.233%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.38%24.32%24.15%25.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.823.854.1030.30%26.20%25.97%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.90%EV -9.32%E -5.45%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.132%E +0.030%K +0.039%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:00
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.90%EV -9.32%E -5.45%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.132%E +0.030%K +0.039%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:00
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 53.54%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.83%EV -0.096%E -0.022%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.63%EV -5.81%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-09 16:59
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 16:59
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 16:59
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 16:59
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.36%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -10.91%E -6.49%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -2.14%E -0.499%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:55
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.06%EV -6.67%E -3.79%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -3.28%E -0.772%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.97%EV -9.44%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 16:59
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%EV -11.97%E -7.21%K -18.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -3.28%E -0.772%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -6.78%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:59
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.51%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.14%E -0.786%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 16:59
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:59
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:59
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 53.44%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -6.78%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:59
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -8.79%E -5.11%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -3.14%E -0.786%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 17:00
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -7.73%E -4.44%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.99%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 16:59
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 17:00
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 53.06%EV -7.73%E -4.44%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 17:00
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -13.03%E -7.95%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.99%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 17:00
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -13.03%E -7.95%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.99%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 17:00
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -13.03%E -7.95%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.99%E -2.10%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 17:00
BetUS1.75I 57.14%NM 52.78%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -5.56%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 16:59
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -2.43%E -1.32%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -6.70%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -0.723%E -0.176%K -0.233%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 16:59
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -6.70%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.14%E -0.786%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 17:00
Codere (IT)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.70%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:59
Betsson1.81I 55.25%NM 51.43%EV -4.02%E -2.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 22.93%EV -7.61%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.64%EV -12.10%E -3.33%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:00
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:59
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.55%E -2.53%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 16:59
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -5.61%E -3.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 17:00
GTbets1.79I 55.87%NM 51.95%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:59
PointsBet (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.57%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 16:59
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -6.14%E -3.47%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -12.83%E -3.56%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 16:59
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.26%E -4.77%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 16:59
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 16:59
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.26%E -4.77%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.97%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -12.83%E -3.56%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 16:59
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -8.79%E -5.11%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.90%EV -9.43%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.11%EV -8.47%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:59
NordicBet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.87%EV -5.08%E -2.84%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.50%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.63%EV -8.71%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 16:59
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -9.85%E -5.79%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -6.78%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 17:00
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 53.23%EV -10.38%E -6.14%K -15.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -10.11%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -9.20%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-09 16:59
Bet Right1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -7.73%E -4.44%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -6.78%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 16:59
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 16:59
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 16:59
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -7.20%E -4.11%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 16:59
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -8.26%E -4.77%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -15.25%E -4.36%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.88%EV -10.91%E -6.49%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.25%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -11.62%E -3.18%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-09 17:00
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 53.04%EV -11.97%E -7.21%K -18.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -13.52%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.79%EV -10.41%E -2.81%K -3.86%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 50.76%EV -11.44%E -6.85%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.55%EV -18.07%E -5.02%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.69%EV -20.09%E -6.09%K -8.74%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-09 16:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-05-09 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-05-09 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-05-09 17:00
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 53.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-05-09 17:00
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 53.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-05-09 16:59
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-05-09 17:00