Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Basaksehir v Galatasaray

Inicio: 2026-09-04 17:00 UTC

Final: Basaksehir 2–3 Galatasaray

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Basaksehir (Local)

Predicción 20.13%4.97momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.280%
Kelly -0.352%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.95%20.14%20.12%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.584.604.9025.00%21.84%21.74%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Galatasaray (Visitante)

Predicción 58.10%1.72momio equitativo
EV -2.40%
Ventaja -1.43%
Kelly -3.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.31%58.05%58.17%59.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.611.611.6865.79%62.28%62.11%59.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.78%4.59momio equitativo
EV -2.01%
Ventaja -0.446%
Kelly -0.573%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.68%21.81%21.72%23.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.194.204.5026.32%23.88%23.81%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Basaksehir (Local): 20.13%; Galatasaray (Visitante): 58.10%; Empate: 21.78%. Para Basaksehir (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.97. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.90, con un valor esperado de -1.37%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -1.37%E -0.280%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.63%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.99%EV -5.93%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -1.37%E -0.280%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.63%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.99%EV -5.93%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -1.37%E -0.280%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -7.63%E -4.80%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -2.01%E -0.446%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -1.37%E -0.280%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:14
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -1.37%E -0.280%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.40%EV -7.63%E -4.80%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -10.72%E -2.61%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:19
Pinnacle🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.77%EV -1.98%E -0.406%K -0.511%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.35%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:15
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -3.39%E -0.705%K -0.891%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -10.72%E -2.61%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.10%EV -4.39%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.21%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.39%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.39%EV -8.21%E -5.20%K -14.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -2.01%E -0.446%K -0.573%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -4.39%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -4.39%E -0.925%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.01%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:14
1xBet🎯4.72I 21.19%NM 20.54%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.72%EV -2.40%E -1.43%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.74%EV -2.88%E -0.645%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 14:05
GTbets🎯4.71I 21.23%NM 19.87%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.86%EV -7.63%E -4.80%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 11:55
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -5.40%E -1.15%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.09%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%EV -6.36%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:05
Betsson🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 19.87%EV -6.20%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.81%EV -5.30%E -3.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.32%EV -13.55%E -3.41%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:50
NordicBet🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 19.87%EV -6.20%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.81%EV -5.30%E -3.25%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.32%EV -13.55%E -3.41%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:50
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:05
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:05
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:09
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 06:10
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.71%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -7.45%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:35
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -7.45%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:35
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.63%E -2.32%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:17
BetUS🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -9.63%E -2.32%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -8.42%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.86%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -6.36%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 19.80%EV -8.42%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.50%EV -10.53%E -6.84%K -19.51%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%EV -9.63%E -2.32%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 14:14
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.58%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.36%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 12:14
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -5.71%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 12:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -5.89%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.45%E -1.75%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 12:04
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 12:04
Bet Right🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.28%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -10.72%E -2.61%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 12:05
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.09%EV -10.53%E -6.84%K -19.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -4.18%E -0.951%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 14:13
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -17.25%E -4.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 14:25
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -11.44%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -11.44%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 12:09
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -11.44%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -6.47%E -4.02%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -11.44%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.86%EV -11.70%E -7.69%K -22.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -6.36%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -11.44%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.11%EV -11.11%E -7.26%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -10.72%E -2.61%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.81%EV -12.44%E -2.86%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.57%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 06:05
PMU (FR)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.81%EV -12.44%E -2.86%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.57%EV -7.05%E -4.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 06:10
BetRivers🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.58%EV -12.44%E -2.86%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.03%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -12.89%E -3.22%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 06:09
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -12.85%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -17.25%E -4.54%K -6.16%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.83%EV -14.46%E -3.40%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.75%EV -9.37%E -6.01%K -16.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.41%EV -13.98%E -3.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 06:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.83%EV -14.46%E -3.40%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.75%EV -9.37%E -6.01%K -16.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.41%EV -13.98%E -3.54%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 06:10
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -19.49%E -4.87%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -8.54%E -2.03%K -2.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 12:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Matchbook◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%0.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-09-04 13:35