Language:English
FC Thun v FC Basel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Thun (Local)
Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.89%53.31%53.37%54.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.731.731.8058.48%57.68%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Basel (Visit)
Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.793%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.74%23.64%23.79%24.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.853.854.1026.67%25.95%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.522%
Kelly -0.681%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%23.05%22.84%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.984.004.2826.32%25.16%25.00%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 53.37%; FC Basel (Visit): 23.79%; Draw: 22.84%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.28, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.68%EV -3.94%E -2.19%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -3.17%E -0.780%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.58%EV -2.23%E -0.522%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-11 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.20%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 04:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.20%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 04:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.20%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 04:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.20%E -3.47%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 04:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.15%EV -7.14%E -4.10%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -7.49%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 18:17 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.01%EV -3.17%E -0.780%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.35%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.14%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -7.67%E -4.44%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -10.91%E -2.80%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 10:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -8.21%E -4.77%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.13%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-11 18:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.74%E -5.11%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -2.46%E -0.600%K -0.793%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.35%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -8.74%E -5.11%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.27%EV -8.74%E -5.11%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 17:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.17% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32% | 2.0% | 2026-04-11 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.17% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32% | 2.0% | 2026-04-11 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25% | 2.3% | 2026-04-11 18:25 |