La escuela de los momios

FC Luzern v BSC Young Boys

Inicio: 2026-03-04 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Luzern (Local)

Predicción 42.30%2.36momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -0.987%
Kelly -1.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.59%42.28%42.36%43.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.172.162.3151.28%46.17%46.30%43.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

BSC Young Boys (Visitante)

Predicción 32.86%3.04momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.473%
Kelly -0.709%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.54%32.89%32.83%34.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.802.803.0040.00%35.73%35.71%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.84%4.03momio equitativo
EV -0.656%
Ventaja -0.164%
Kelly -0.219%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.57%24.82%24.81%26.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.683.744.0031.25%27.18%26.74%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29%NM 41.88%EV -2.28%E -0.987%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.46%EV -2.08%E -0.696%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.66%EV -6.37%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 19:15
BetOnline.ag2.31I 43.29%NM 41.77%EV -2.28%E -0.987%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -1.42%E -0.473%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 19:15
LowVig.ag2.31I 43.29%NM 41.77%EV -2.28%E -0.987%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -1.42%E -0.473%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 19:14
BetAnything2.31I 43.29%NM 41.77%EV -2.28%E -0.987%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -1.42%E -0.473%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 19:15
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.82%E -2.14%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -0.656%E -0.164%K -0.219%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 18:30
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -4.82%E -2.14%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Codere (IT)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.82%E -2.14%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.38%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 19:14
GTbets2.22I 45.05%NM 42.44%EV -6.09%E -2.74%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.37%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.19%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 19:14
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.09%E -2.74%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.40%EV -8.65%E -3.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-04 19:15
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.09%E -2.74%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.40%EV -8.65%E -3.11%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-04 19:14
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 19:14
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 19:15
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.14%E -0.805%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 19:15
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.14%E -0.805%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 18:30
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 19:14
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.93%E -3.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-04 19:15
1xBet2.19I 45.66%NM 42.79%EV -7.36%E -3.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.88%EV -3.39%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 19:14
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -8.20%E -3.78%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -3.72%E -1.27%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Bovada2.16I 46.30%NM 42.79%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.54%EV -3.72%E -1.27%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 19:13
BetUS2.16I 46.30%NM 42.79%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.54%EV -3.72%E -1.27%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.67%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 19:14
Unibet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Virgin Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Unibet (NL)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
TABtouch2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Unibet (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
ATG (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Casumo2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
BetRivers2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
betPARX2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
Svenska Spel2.16I 46.30%NM 42.60%EV -8.62%E -3.99%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.86%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:10
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.11%E -2.19%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 19:14
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-04 17:25
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -11.28%E -4.18%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -4.38%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-04 18:30
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -5.36%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 19:15
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -5.36%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 19:15
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -5.36%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 19:15
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -5.36%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 19:12
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 19:14
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.92%E -4.88%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -4.38%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -12.92%E -4.88%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.62%E -1.48%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 18:29
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 19:14
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.28%E -4.18%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.05%E -4.21%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.28%E -4.18%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-04 19:15
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.83%EV -9.47%E -4.43%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-04 17:10
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.16%EV -10.32%E -4.87%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.35%EV -11.93%E -4.45%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 19:14
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 19:12
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -7.99%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 19:15
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-04 19:15
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.09%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.36%EV -12.92%E -4.88%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-04 19:15
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.69%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -16.21%E -6.35%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -11.16%E -5.32%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.78%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -20.53%E -6.41%K -9.33%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-04 19:15
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -13.28%E -6.48%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.62%EV -12.26%E -4.59%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%EV -13.07%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-04 19:15
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%EV -13.28%E -6.48%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.32%EV -17.85%E -7.14%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.83%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%16.6%2026-03-04 19:15
PMU (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 42.61%EV -17.51%E -8.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.59%EV -16.21%E -6.35%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.80%EV -16.80%E -5.01%K -7.15%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-04 19:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-03-04 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-03-04 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-03-04 19:15
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.70%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-03-04 19:15
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.57%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-03-04 19:15