The School of Odds

FC Lugano v FC Vaduz

2026-07-26 14:30 — Swiss Superleague

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis)

Option 1: FC Lugano (Local)

Odds
1.3375.19%Min
1.3972.20%Mean
1.4071.43%Median
1.4270.42%Max
Consensus probabilities
62.79%1.593Min
67.35%1.485Max
65.95%1.516Mean
66.32%1.508Median
66.05%1.514IQM
66.14%1.512Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.42 under the IQM model: 66.05%

EV -6.21%Edge -4.38%Kelly -14.79%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC Vaduz (Visit)

Odds
4.9020.41%Min
6.1216.33%Mean
6.5015.38%Median
6.7514.81%Max
Consensus probabilities
13.92%7.182Min
17.17%5.823Max
14.58%6.860Mean
14.22%7.034Median
14.46%6.918IQM
14.46%6.916Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.75 under the IQM model: 14.46%

EV -2.43%Edge -0.359%Kelly -0.422%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
4.2023.81%Min
4.6421.57%Mean
4.6721.39%Median
5.0020.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
18.45%5.419Min
20.38%4.907Max
19.48%5.135Mean
19.47%5.137Median
19.50%5.129IQM
19.40%5.155Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.00 under the IQM model: 19.50%

EV -2.51%Edge -0.502%Kelly -0.627%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Lugano (Local) ▼FC Vaduz (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.92%EV -6.21% E -4.38% K -14.79% G +0.000%6.75I 14.81% NM 14.08%EV -2.43% E -0.359% K -0.422% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 19.00%EV -2.51% E -0.502% K -0.627% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-02 12:55
NordicBet1.42I 70.42% NM 64.95%EV -6.21% E -4.38% K -14.79% G +0.000%5.90I 16.95% NM 15.63%EV -14.71% E -2.49% K -3.00% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.42%EV -7.38% E -1.55% K -1.97% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-30 18:49
Betsson1.42I 70.42% NM 64.95%EV -6.21% E -4.38% K -14.79% G +0.000%5.90I 16.95% NM 15.63%EV -14.71% E -2.49% K -3.00% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.42%EV -7.38% E -1.55% K -1.97% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-30 18:49
1xBet1.41I 70.92% NM 66.45%EV -6.87% E -4.88% K -16.77% G +0.000%6.68I 14.97% NM 14.03%EV -3.44% E -0.515% K -0.605% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.52%EV -6.41% E -1.34% K -1.69% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 02:45
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43% NM 66.64%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.70I 14.93% NM 13.92%EV -3.15% E -0.470% K -0.552% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.44%EV -6.41% E -1.34% K -1.69% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 02:45
Fanatics1.40I 71.43% NM 66.22%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.26%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.52%EV -7.38% E -1.55% K -1.97% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-01 04:09
William Hill1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -12.26% E -2.72% K -3.50% G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-30 17:00
888sport1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -12.26% E -2.72% K -3.50% G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-30 18:30
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -12.26% E -2.72% K -3.50% G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-30 18:29
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43% NM 65.51%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.11%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 20.38%EV -12.26% E -2.72% K -3.50% G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-30 18:40
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43% NM 64.52%EV -7.53% E -5.38% K -18.84% G +0.000%5.70I 17.54% NM 15.85%EV -17.60% E -3.09% K -3.75% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.64%EV -10.31% E -2.24% K -2.86% G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-02 10:19
FanDuel1.37I 72.99% NM 67.35%EV -9.52% E -6.95% K -25.72% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.20%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.45%EV -2.51% E -0.502% K -0.627% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-30 20:18
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99% NM 63.78%EV -9.52% E -6.95% K -25.72% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 16.80%EV -24.83% E -4.78% K -5.91% G +0.000%4.50I 22.22% NM 19.42%EV -12.26% E -2.72% K -3.50% G +0.000%14.4%2026-06-30 16:29
SportsBet1.36I 73.53% NM 67.26%EV -10.18% E -7.48% K -28.27% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.07%EV -6.04% E -0.929% K -1.10% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.67%EV -4.46% E -0.910% K -1.14% G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-30 16:19
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53% NM 64.05%EV -10.18% E -7.48% K -28.27% G +0.000%5.50I 18.18% NM 15.84%EV -20.50% E -3.73% K -4.55% G +0.000%4.33I 23.09% NM 20.12%EV -15.57% E -3.60% K -4.68% G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-01 01:29
Betclic (FR)1.35I 74.07% NM 63.94%EV -10.84% E -8.03% K -30.96% G +0.000%5.40I 18.52% NM 15.99%EV -21.94% E -4.06% K -4.99% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 20.07%EV -16.16% E -3.76% K -4.90% G +0.000%15.8%2026-06-30 16:19
Winamax (FR)1.34I 74.63% NM 62.79%EV -11.50% E -8.58% K -33.82% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 17.17%EV -29.17% E -5.95% K -7.48% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 20.03%EV -18.11% E -4.31% K -5.66% G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-30 18:49
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19% NM 66.59%EV -12.16% E -9.14% K -36.84% G +0.000%6.00I 16.67% NM 14.76%EV -13.27% E -2.21% K -2.65% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 18.65%EV -7.38% E -1.55% K -1.97% G +0.000%12.9%2026-06-30 16:19
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19% NM 64.56%EV -12.16% E -9.14% K -36.84% G +0.000%5.50I 18.18% NM 15.61%EV -20.50% E -3.73% K -4.55% G +0.000%4.33I 23.09% NM 19.83%EV -15.57% E -3.60% K -4.68% G +0.000%16.5%2026-06-30 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerFC Lugano (Local)FC Vaduz (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%5.20I 19.23%4.20I 23.81%16.6%2026-06-30 16:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-07-01 07:29