The School of Odds

FC Lugano v FC Vaduz

2026-07-26 14:30 UTC — Swiss Superleague

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Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 63.31%1.58fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -8.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.67%63.38%63.18%66.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.451.5174%69%69%66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Vaduz (Visit)

Prediction 15.93%6.28fair odd
EV +3.56%
Edge +0.547%
Kelly +0.647%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.84%15.87%16.05%18.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.805.765.756.5021%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV -0.339%
Edge -0.071%
Kelly -0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%20.75%20.77%22.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.414.504.8025%23%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +3.56%E +0.547%K +0.647%G +0.023%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -1.38%E -0.290%K -0.367%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 19:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -11.37%E -8.12%K -28.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +3.56%E +0.547%K +0.647%G +0.023%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -1.38%E -0.290%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-16 14:30
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -12.01%E -8.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +3.56%E +0.547%K +0.647%G +0.023%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -2.41%E -0.514%K -0.653%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-10 15:00
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -13.27%E -9.69%K -35.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV +3.56%E +0.547%K +0.647%G +0.023%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -0.339%E -0.071%K -0.089%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 14:30
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -13.90%E -10.22%K -38.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV +3.56%E +0.547%K +0.647%G +0.023%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-21 14:33
1xBet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.72%EV -6.94%E -4.72%K -14.77%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -0.426%E -0.068%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 19:08
PointsBet (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -0.426%E -0.068%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 19:49
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.88%EV -7.57%E -5.19%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -0.426%E -0.068%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 19:04
LowVig.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -5.67%E -3.81%K -11.58%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -1.22%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 14:35
BetOnline.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -5.67%E -3.81%K -11.58%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -1.22%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 14:35
BetAnything1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%EV -5.67%E -3.81%K -11.58%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%EV -1.22%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 14:36
Pinnacle1.51I 66.23%NM 63.05%EV -4.41%E -2.92%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.41%EV -1.54%E -0.249%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.54%EV -8.23%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 14:50
DraftKings1.49I 67.11%NM 63.31%EV -5.67%E -3.81%K -11.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 14:30
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-16 15:00
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -9.47%E -6.62%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-19 14:45
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-15 21:08
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-15 21:09
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-15 21:09
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-14 13:25
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -13.90%E -10.22%K -38.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -4.41%E -0.735%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -10.10%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-23 14:30
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -6.94%E -4.72%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -7.60%E -1.31%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.49%E -0.976%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 15:19
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -5.04%E -3.36%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -10.10%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 21:50
Fanatics1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 23:34
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.36%EV -7.57%E -5.19%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 22:10
Bovada1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -11.76%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 20:15
BetUS1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -11.76%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 20:20
BetRivers1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
Casumo1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
TABtouch1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
Unibet (NL)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:09
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:09
Unibet (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
betPARX1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
Svenska Spel1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:10
ATG (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 22:09
betano_uk1.45I 68.97%NM 63.01%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.10%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 20:14
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 63.01%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.10%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 20:15
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-25 14:35
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 63.71%EV -10.11%E -7.12%K -24.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -8.39%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-25 14:40
LiveScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -10.78%E -1.93%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -10.78%E -1.93%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 22:10
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.57%EV -9.47%E -6.62%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -10.78%E -1.93%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-23 22:10
GTbets1.51I 66.23%NM 62.62%EV -4.41%E -2.92%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.01%EV -11.42%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.38%EV -3.66%E -0.789%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-20 00:05
BetMGM1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.04%E -3.36%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 07:00
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.49%E -0.976%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-24 14:49
NordicBet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -6.94%E -4.72%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -5.53%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 14:50
Betsson1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -6.94%E -4.72%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -5.53%E -1.22%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 14:50
LeoVegas1.47I 68.03%NM 62.74%EV -6.94%E -4.72%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 09:05
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -12.38%E -2.25%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -16.95%E -4.24%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-25 14:45
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.72%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV -13.97%E -2.59%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.44%EV -7.61%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 14:54
Unibet (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.74%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -13.97%E -2.59%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -8.64%E -1.96%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-25 14:30
NetBet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.13%EV -12.64%E -9.16%K -33.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.13%EV -13.97%E -2.59%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.74%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-25 09:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 06:59
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 06:59
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.31%E -4.26%K -13.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 07:00
Winamax (DE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.57%E -1.46%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 14:49
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 62.37%EV -11.37%E -8.12%K -28.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -20.34%E -4.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.17%EV -10.10%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 13:44
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 61.37%EV -10.74%E -7.62%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.03%EV -23.53%E -4.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.60%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-24 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-07-25 14:50
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-07-25 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-07-25 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-07-25 14:50
Matchbook1.51I 66.23%NM 63.62%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.49%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.88%4.1%2026-07-25 14:45