Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

BSC Young Boys v FC Lugano

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 15:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BSC Young Boys (Local)

Prediction 50.62%1.98fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%50.69%50.54%52.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.841.831.9360.24%54.41%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 24.91%4.01fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.454%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.73%24.89%24.97%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.604.0730.30%27.76%27.78%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.47%4.09fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.466%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%24.42%24.48%26.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.713.704.0131.25%26.98%27.03%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BSC Young Boys (Local): 50.62%; FC Lugano (Visit): 24.91%; Draw: 24.47%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.73%EV +1.39%E +0.342%K +0.454%G +0.006%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.08%EV -1.87%E -0.466%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -0.351%E -0.088%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 15:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -0.351%E -0.088%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 15:30
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 15:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -10.41%E -5.88%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -7.88%E -4.33%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 15:28
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.68%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 15:29
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 15:29
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 15:29
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:30
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.36%EV -4.84%E -2.58%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.98%EV -5.58%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.66%EV -6.03%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 15:29
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -4.84%E -2.58%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.11%E -0.528%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 15:28
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.39%EV -5.35%E -2.86%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 15:29
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 15:29
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -11.42%E -6.53%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 15:29
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 15:29
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -5.35%E -2.86%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 15:30
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 15:29
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 15:29
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.10%EV -10.41%E -5.88%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.82%E -2.11%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 15:30
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 15:29
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:29
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.23%E -2.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:29
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 15:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -11.42%E -6.53%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.21%EV -7.88%E -4.33%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.01%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 15:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.35%EV -10.41%E -5.88%K -13.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.55%EV -11.17%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 15:28
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.25%EV -13.95%E -8.21%K -19.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.54%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -7.88%E -4.33%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -9.45%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 15:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 15:29
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 15:30
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 15:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 15:30
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.14%EV -12.43%E -7.19%K -17.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -21.69%E -6.78%K -9.86%G +0.000%17.6%2026-03-22 15:30
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.98%EV -11.42%E -6.53%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -15.30%E -4.50%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-22 15:29
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -2.31%E -1.20%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -3.83%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -16.54%E -4.94%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -11.90%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-22 15:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.72%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -17.79%E -5.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.70%EV -13.13%E -3.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.57%EV -15.98%E -9.63%K -24.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.44%EV -17.79%E -5.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.99%EV -14.35%E -4.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%19.1%2026-03-22 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-03-22 15:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-03-22 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.4%2026-03-22 15:30
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 51.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%2.9%2026-03-22 15:30
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 51.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%3.2%2026-03-22 15:30