Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Helsingborgs IF v IFK Värnamo

2026-08-11 17:00 UTC — Superettan - Sweden

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Helsingborgs IF (Local)

Prediction 47.44%2.11fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -6.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.49%47.29%47.44%47.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.931.921.9852.63%51.81%52.22%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Värnamo (Visit)

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%27.05%26.95%28.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.403.4533.33%29.96%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.61%3.90fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -0.954%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.66%25.61%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.553.8030.30%28.40%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Helsingborgs IF (Local): 47.44%; IFK Värnamo (Visit): 26.95%; Draw: 25.61%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.80, with an expected value of -2.67%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.05%EV -6.07%E -3.07%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.79%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 12:34
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.30%EV -7.02%E -3.58%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -7.29%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -7.79%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 12:29
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.50%E -3.84%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -6.51%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-03 08:34
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.50%E -3.84%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -6.51%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-03 08:34
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.50%E -3.84%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.67%E -0.703%K -0.954%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 08:32
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.50%E -3.84%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.67%E -0.703%K -0.954%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 08:50
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 47.13%EV -8.92%E -4.65%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -10.36%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-03 10:29
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -12.41%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -7.79%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-03 08:33
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 10:24
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 10:25
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 10:24
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 10:24
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -9.39%E -4.92%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -19.15%E -6.38%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -12.92%E -3.80%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-03 08:34
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 46.60%EV -9.87%E -5.19%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -15.11%E -4.80%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -10.36%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-03 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.