Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 12:01 UTC

Final: Västerås SK 1–0 Mjällby AIF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås SK (Local)

Prediction 39.54%2.53fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.781%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.33%39.71%39.60%41.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.322.322.4847.62%43.03%43.10%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mjällby AIF (Visit)

Prediction 32.64%3.06fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.568%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.91%32.57%32.68%34.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.803.1038.17%35.62%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.82%3.60fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.419%
Kelly +0.577%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.71%27.73%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.6532.26%30.03%30.30%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås SK (Local): 39.54%; Mjällby AIF (Visit): 32.64%; Draw: 27.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.94%EV -3.91%E -1.61%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.47%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +1.53%E +0.419%K +0.577%G +0.009%3.0%2026-10-18 10:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.44%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.19%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.37%EV +1.53%E +0.419%K +0.577%G +0.009%3.9%2026-10-18 07:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.44%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.19%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.37%EV +1.53%E +0.419%K +0.577%G +0.009%3.9%2026-10-18 07:39
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV +0.139%E +0.039%K +0.053%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 12:00
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -1.25%E -0.353%K -0.491%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-13 12:04
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 07:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 07:40
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 07:40
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.64%E -0.755%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 07:39
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.83%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV +1.19%E +0.384%K +0.568%G +0.007%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.22%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 11:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 11:40
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -14.48%E -5.53%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV -9.85%E -4.32%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 07:40
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.82%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -5.42%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-12 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -4.68%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 12:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -4.68%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 12:00
BetAnything🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.31%E -1.78%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -4.68%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 11:54
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 11:39
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.92%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 07:40
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.13%EV -11.82%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 18:05
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.45%EV -3.91%E -1.61%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.85%EV -1.75%E -0.580%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.70%EV -7.09%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 11:59
Betsson🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.95%EV -3.52%E -1.44%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.43%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.62%EV -7.65%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 11:55
GTbets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.68%EV -7.47%E -3.19%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.35%EV -6.32%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.97%EV -7.65%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 11:39
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 11:44
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 11:44
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 11:34
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -3.70%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 11:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -11.82%E -5.30%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.25%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-18 07:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.25%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-18 07:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -14.99%E -6.97%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -8.21%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-18 12:00
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.33%EV -1.94%E -0.781%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.89%EV -8.48%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 11:59
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.28%EV -5.50%E -2.30%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -3.70%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 11:58
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.28%EV -5.50%E -2.30%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -3.70%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 11:59
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-18 12:00
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -5.10%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 11:44
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 11:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.01%EV -16.96%E -8.08%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.50%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%EV -9.60%E -2.95%K -4.27%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-18 11:34
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:35
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.89%E -2.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 11:49
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-18 11:54
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -11.87%E -4.39%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -10.99%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 11:45
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 11:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 11:45
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 11:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.06%E -3.94%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 11:44
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.23%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.77%E -4.44%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 11:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.62%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-10-18 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-18 12:00
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33%1.8%2026-10-18 12:00
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.53%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.84%2.0%2026-10-18 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%2.5%2026-10-18 12:00