Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF

2026-10-18 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

34 corredores (7 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Västerås SK (Local)

Predicción 39.56%2.53momio equitativo
EV -3.47%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.66%39.76%39.48%42.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.252.232.4450.00%44.47%44.94%40.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mjällby AIF (Visitante)

Predicción 33.60%2.98momio equitativo
EV +4.15%
Ventaja +1.34%
Kelly +1.97%
Crecimiento +0.082%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.30%33.39%33.62%34.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.812.793.1039.22%35.58%35.78%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.84%3.73momio equitativo
EV +0.664%
Ventaja +0.177%
Kelly +0.241%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.67%26.85%26.90%27.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.463.463.7530.77%28.92%28.86%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Västerås SK (Local): 39.56%; Mjällby AIF (Visitante): 33.60%; Empate: 26.84%. Para Mjällby AIF (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.98. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.10, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.15%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -9.80%E -4.30%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV +4.15%E +1.34%K +1.97%G +0.082%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV +0.664%E +0.177%K +0.241%G +0.002%2.8%2026-10-11 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -9.80%E -4.30%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV +4.15%E +1.34%K +1.97%G +0.082%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV +0.664%E +0.177%K +0.241%G +0.002%2.8%2026-10-11 12:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -9.80%E -4.30%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV +4.15%E +1.34%K +1.97%G +0.082%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV +0.664%E +0.177%K +0.241%G +0.002%2.8%2026-10-11 12:49
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:50
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:50
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -0.893%E -0.303%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.92%EV -14.55%E -6.74%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -3.24%E -1.13%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 12:49
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.01%EV -15.34%E -7.17%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -4.25%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 12:50
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -16.13%E -7.61%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -4.25%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -10.07%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 12:49
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.26%EV -8.22%E -3.54%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.89%EV -4.59%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -6.58%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 13:55
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -5.85%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 13:55
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -9.01%E -3.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.36%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 13:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.07%EV -16.92%E -8.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -10.07%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 12:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.07%EV -16.92%E -8.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -10.07%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 12:50
Betsson🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.94%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.06%EV -6.27%E -2.25%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.51%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 13:54
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.76%EV -5.24%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.03%E -2.99%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.73%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 13:54
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 14:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 14:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 14:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -10.99%E -4.88%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -4.70%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 13:15
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -10.99%E -4.88%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 13:14
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -10.99%E -4.88%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 13:14
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.79%EV -5.05%E -2.11%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.23%EV -8.62%E -3.17%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.39%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 13:54
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 13:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.36%EV -20.88%E -10.44%K -20.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.97%EV -10.97%E -4.14%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.67%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-11 13:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.88%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.36%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.75%EV -11.95%E -3.64%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 13:53
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -14.94%E -6.95%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.23%EV -12.65%E -4.87%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -12.76%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-11 13:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.69%EV -12.97%E -5.89%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.24%EV -14.33%E -5.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -10.07%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-11 13:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.09%EV -14.94%E -6.95%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -14.33%E -5.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-11 13:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 39.31%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.60%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%13.6%2026-10-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-11 13:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-11 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-10-11 13:25
Arbitraje (9 combinaciones) +0.09%Betsson 2.44 (41.0%) / Unibet (SE) 3.10 (32.3%) / Unibet (SE) 3.75 (26.7%)Ver las 9 combinaciones
Västerås SK (Local)Mjällby AIF (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.10 (32.3%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%
Betsson🎯 2.44 (41.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.10 (32.3%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.092%