Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås SK v IK Sirius

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:30 UTC

Final: Västerås SK 0–1 IK Sirius

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås SK (Local)

Prediction 26.27%3.81fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.298%
Kelly +0.402%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.82%26.23%26.28%27.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.8530.77%28.42%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Sirius (Visit)

Prediction 48.97%2.04fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.87%49.04%48.98%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.881.9557.14%53.27%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.752%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%24.73%24.74%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.713.753.9528.57%26.97%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås SK (Local): 26.27%; IK Sirius (Visit): 48.97%; Draw: 24.75%. For Västerås SK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV +1.15%E +0.298%K +0.402%G +0.005%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%EV -2.22%E -0.562%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 09:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV +1.15%E +0.298%K +0.402%G +0.005%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%EV -2.22%E -0.562%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 09:29
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV +1.15%E +0.298%K +0.402%G +0.005%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.55%EV -2.22%E -0.562%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 09:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -2.79%E -0.755%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -11.85%E -6.58%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 04:40
1xBet🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.38%EV -3.06%E -0.829%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.30%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.41%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 09:35
Coolbet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.31%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.34%EV -2.22%E -0.562%K -0.752%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-02 08:20
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:30
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:30
betPARX🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:30
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 09:29
Pinnacle🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.00%EV -4.37%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.45%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 07:50
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.42%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -8.41%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 00:05
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -5.42%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.69%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 07:48
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.42%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -8.41%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 01:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.42%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 15:35
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.74%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -9.65%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 09:45
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.74%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -9.65%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 09:45
GTbets🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 26.70%EV -7.26%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -4.69%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 05:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -3.46%E -0.886%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 06:09
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 05:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 06:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 06:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 06:10
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 06:09
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 06:09
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 00:05
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 00:05
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -3.46%E -0.886%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 15:35
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.41%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 07:50
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -8.41%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 07:50
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 15:35
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:30
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -8.05%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.37%EV -10.87%E -5.97%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 09:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.11%EV -8.57%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.85%EV -8.91%E -4.79%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.03%EV -10.14%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 07:08
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 03:34
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -8.42%E -4.50%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 05:59
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -8.42%E -4.50%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.29%EV -11.85%E -6.58%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.99%EV -12.12%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 09:30
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.29%EV -11.85%E -6.58%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.99%EV -12.12%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.29%EV -11.85%E -6.58%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.99%EV -12.12%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 09:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -9.36%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.54%EV -13.32%E -7.52%K -17.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -13.36%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 15:35
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 14:18
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -8.91%E -4.79%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.78%EV -9.65%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 01:15
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -10.68%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -12.12%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-02 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.36%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 05:40
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.36%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.36%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 05:40
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.36%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.61%EV -10.87%E -5.97%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 01:15
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.60%EV -14.62%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.39%EV -14.30%E -8.17%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.01%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-02 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%1.0%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%1.0%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%1.0%2026-09-04 13:10
Matchbook3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%1.0%2026-09-04 13:20
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-09-04 14:00