Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Örgryte IS v AIK

Inicio: 2026-08-08 13:01 UTC

Final: Örgryte IS 3–4 AIK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Örgryte IS (Local)

Predicción 36.02%2.78momio equitativo
EV -0.956%
Ventaja -0.348%
Kelly -0.546%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.83%35.93%36.17%36.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.552.552.7542.55%39.14%39.22%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

AIK (Visitante)

Predicción 37.50%2.67momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -0.966%
Kelly -1.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.26%37.58%37.41%38.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.462.452.6043.86%40.62%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.49%3.78momio equitativo
EV +0.654%
Ventaja +0.172%
Kelly +0.234%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.67%26.48%26.42%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.483.503.8030.77%28.71%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Örgryte IS (Local): 36.02%; AIK (Visitante): 37.50%; Empate: 26.49%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.654%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.81%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.52%EV -2.51%E -0.966%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +0.654%E +0.172%K +0.234%G +0.002%2.5%2026-08-08 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.81%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.52%EV -2.51%E -0.966%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +0.654%E +0.172%K +0.234%G +0.002%2.5%2026-08-08 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.81%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.52%EV -2.51%E -0.966%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +0.654%E +0.172%K +0.234%G +0.002%2.5%2026-08-08 12:55
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.54%EV -2.76%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.23%EV -5.89%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.22%EV -3.05%E -0.834%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 12:45
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.956%E -0.348%K -0.546%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.93%EV -7.76%E -3.15%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.32%E -0.909%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.16%EV -4.20%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.28%EV -3.26%E -1.26%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.57%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.16%EV -4.20%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.28%EV -3.26%E -1.26%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.57%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 12:45
BetAnything🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.16%EV -4.20%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.28%EV -3.26%E -1.26%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.57%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -7.01%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -7.01%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 12:55
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 12:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 12:09
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.26%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -8.88%E -3.66%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -4.64%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 12:54
GTbets🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.97%EV -5.28%E -2.01%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.69%EV -5.89%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.35%EV -4.91%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 12:14
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.39%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 12:13
Bovada🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -4.92%E -1.86%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.81%EV -6.63%E -2.66%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 12:54
BetUS🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -4.92%E -1.86%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.81%EV -6.63%E -2.66%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.97%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 12:55
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -2.51%E -0.966%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.39%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 12:09
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 12:45
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -7.08%E -2.74%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -5.51%E -2.19%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 12:54
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.65%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.66%EV -7.01%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 09:55
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 12:55
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 12:45
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 12:48
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 12:13
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 12:10
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -10.68%E -4.31%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.88%EV -10.76%E -4.52%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -7.29%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 12:54
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -5.28%E -2.01%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.60%EV -7.01%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -8.35%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 12:54
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 12:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.21%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.08%EV -12.63%E -5.42%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 12:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.21%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.08%EV -12.63%E -5.42%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -8.62%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 12:54
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 12:49
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.08%EV -10.68%E -4.31%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.60%EV -10.76%E -4.52%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.94%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 12:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 12:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.59%EV -8.88%E -3.51%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.52%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -11.27%E -3.36%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 12:33
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.26%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:09
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.13%E -3.32%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:55
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.76%E -4.52%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.59%E -3.82%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 12:45
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -13.91%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.01%E -4.17%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -13.91%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 12:00
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.14%EV -14.28%E -6.00%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.40%EV -13.76%E -5.98%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%EV -13.91%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-08 12:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.31%EV -15.36%E -6.54%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 37.43%EV -14.51%E -6.36%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.26%EV -13.91%E -4.28%K -6.18%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-08 12:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.18%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.28%0.1%2026-08-08 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-08-08 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.62%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-08 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.62%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-08 12:55
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.25%1.6%2026-08-08 12:50