Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mjällby AIF v IK Sirius

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00 UTC

Final: Mjällby AIF 4–3 IK Sirius

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.744%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.12%31.32%31.31%32.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.913.2635.71%34.05%34.36%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Sirius (Visit)

Prediction 42.16%2.37fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.756%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.79%42.28%42.30%43.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.172.3350.00%45.64%45.98%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.40%26.39%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.453.6530.77%28.92%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mjällby AIF (Local): 31.42%; IK Sirius (Visit): 42.16%; Draw: 26.42%. For Mjällby AIF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.12%EV +2.42%E +0.744%K +1.07%G +0.026%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.75%EV -8.51%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%EV +2.11%E +0.649%K +0.938%G +0.020%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.71%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:34
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:34
GTbets🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.01%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:24
Pinnacle🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.72%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 12:59
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 12:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 12:55
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:59
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:54
BetAnything🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:54
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 12:54
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:35
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:34
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 12:54
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.03%EV -7.94%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.53%EV -4.71%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:59
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -8.26%E -2.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.79%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -8.26%E -2.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.79%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 12:54
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 12:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 12:39
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -8.09%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -10.61%E -5.01%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:38
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 12:58
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 12:58
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 12:35
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 12:35
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.83%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.83%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 12:35
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 12:39
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.23%EV -8.09%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 12:34
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.34%EV -8.51%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 12:34
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 12:39
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -15.67%E -7.84%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-15 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-08-15 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53%1.9%2026-08-15 12:55