Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF v IK Sirius

Inicio: 2026-08-15 13:00 UTC

Final: Mjällby AIF 4–3 IK Sirius

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Predicción 31.42%3.18momio equitativo
EV +2.42%
Ventaja +0.744%
Kelly +1.07%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.12%31.32%31.31%32.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.942.913.2635.71%34.05%34.36%30.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IK Sirius (Visitante)

Predicción 42.16%2.37momio equitativo
EV -1.76%
Ventaja -0.756%
Kelly -1.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.79%42.28%42.30%43.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.192.172.3350.00%45.64%45.98%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.42%3.79momio equitativo
EV -3.57%
Ventaja -0.979%
Kelly -1.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.00%26.40%26.39%27.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.463.453.6530.77%28.92%28.99%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mjällby AIF (Local): 31.42%; IK Sirius (Visitante): 42.16%; Empate: 26.42%. Para Mjällby AIF (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.18. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.26, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.42%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.12%EV +2.42%E +0.744%K +1.07%G +0.026%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.75%EV -8.51%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%EV +2.11%E +0.649%K +0.938%G +0.020%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.71%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:34
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69%EV -1.76%E -0.756%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 12:34
GTbets🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.04%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.01%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -2.60%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:24
Pinnacle🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.72%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 12:59
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 12:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 12:55
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:59
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:54
BetAnything🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.24%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:54
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -3.03%E -1.32%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 12:54
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:35
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:34
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.32%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 12:54
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.03%EV -7.94%E -2.71%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.53%EV -4.71%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:59
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -8.26%E -2.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.79%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -8.26%E -2.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.79%EV -3.87%E -1.70%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 12:54
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 12:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 12:39
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.07%EV -5.98%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:35
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -8.09%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -10.61%E -5.01%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.89%E -3.06%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:38
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 12:58
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 12:58
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 12:35
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 12:35
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.83%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -9.83%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.46%E -5.46%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 12:35
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 12:39
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.23%EV -8.09%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 12:34
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -10.46%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.34%EV -8.51%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 12:34
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.18%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 12:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 12:39
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.82%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.28%EV -9.77%E -4.57%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 12:34
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -12.03%E -4.30%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -15.67%E -7.84%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-15 12:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-08-15 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.1%2026-08-15 12:55
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53%1.9%2026-08-15 12:55