Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF v IF Elfsborg

Inicio: 2026-08-08 15:30 UTC

Final: Mjällby AIF 0–1 IF Elfsborg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Predicción 33.33%3.00momio equitativo
EV -0.023%
Ventaja -0.008%
Kelly -0.011%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.92%33.41%33.27%35.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.752.753.0040.00%36.32%36.36%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IF Elfsborg (Visitante)

Predicción 37.27%2.68momio equitativo
EV -3.10%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -1.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.48%37.36%37.28%38.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.472.462.6043.48%40.44%40.57%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.41%3.40momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.445%
Kelly -0.634%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.93%29.23%29.45%30.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.133.153.3534.48%31.97%31.75%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mjällby AIF (Local): 33.33%; IF Elfsborg (Visitante): 37.27%; Empate: 29.41%. Para Mjällby AIF (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.001. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.000, con un valor esperado de -0.023%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -0.023%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 15:28
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.88%EV -2.69%E -0.921%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.21%EV -3.85%E -1.49%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -5.61%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 15:29
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.50%EV -2.69%E -0.921%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.37%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 15:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.49%E -0.445%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 15:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.49%E -0.445%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 15:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.49%E -0.445%K -0.634%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 15:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 15:25
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.96%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.09%EV -8.25%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 15:28
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -5.35%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -5.35%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 15:24
BetUS🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -5.35%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 15:29
BetAnything🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.40%EV -5.35%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 15:24
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.92%EV -5.35%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -9.07%E -3.72%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:14
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -6.02%E -2.14%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -6.08%E -2.41%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 15:24
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -6.02%E -2.14%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.12%EV -6.08%E -2.41%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 15:24
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:29
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 15:10
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 15:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 15:24
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:29
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.96%E -0.897%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 14:55
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:24
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:29
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 15:10
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 15:29
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 15:28
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 15:29
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 15:19
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 15:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 15:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 15:29
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -8.35%E -3.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 15:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 15:29
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 15:29
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.96%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.96%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 15:24
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.96%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 15:24
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.96%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.44%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.27%EV -9.72%E -3.17%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 15:28
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 15:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -11.69%E -4.41%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 15:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -11.69%E -4.41%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 15:25
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -12.35%E -4.70%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.93%EV -9.44%E -3.88%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 15:22
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.81%EV -12.35%E -4.70%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.04%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.15%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 15:24
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -12.69%E -4.84%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 15:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.26%EV -13.35%E -5.14%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -12.42%E -5.29%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.79%EV -13.35%E -5.14%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.92%EV -11.30%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.29%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.79%EV -13.35%E -5.14%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.92%EV -11.30%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.29%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -16.69%E -6.67%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -14.28%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-08 15:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.91%EV -16.69%E -6.67%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.86%EV -14.28%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.23%EV -14.72%E -5.08%K -7.75%G +0.000%18.0%2026-08-08 15:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-08-08 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-08-08 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-08-08 15:15
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-08 15:25
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.13%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-08 15:25