Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF v Örgryte IS

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:30 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 4–1 Örgryte IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF (Local)

Prediction 66.53%1.50fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -11.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.24%66.51%66.49%69.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.401.4376.92%72.33%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örgryte IS (Visit)

Prediction 14.17%7.06fair odd
EV +13.32%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.253%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.20%14.14%14.24%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.676.508.0017.54%14.99%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.31%5.18fair odd
EV +4.27%
Edge +0.790%
Kelly +0.970%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.08%19.35%19.27%21.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.784.755.4023.26%20.91%21.05%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmo FF (Local): 66.53%; Örgryte IS (Visit): 14.17%; Draw: 19.31%. For Örgryte IS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.06. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:00
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:25
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:01
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.89%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.21%EV +3.40%E +0.466%K +0.540%G +0.018%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV -1.52%E -0.299%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -10.19%E -7.55%K -29.11%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV +1.99%E +0.276%K +0.321%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 14:20
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -8.19%E -5.94%K -21.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 05:35
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 14:26
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 05:00
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.10%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.49%EV -2.26%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -16.01%E -3.68%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.10%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.49%EV -2.26%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -16.01%E -3.68%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.17%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -1.52%E -0.299%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 06:15
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.35%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.87%EV -12.19%E -9.23%K -38.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.27%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 05:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:00
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 13:20
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.36%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV +0.407%E +0.078%K +0.097%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 13:20
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:20
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -6.20%E -4.40%K -15.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -4.42%E -0.893%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:05
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 06:15
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:16
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:16
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -8.19%E -5.94%K -21.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 05:40
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 14:20
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.10%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.55%EV -8.64%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.35%EV -6.35%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.65%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.26I 15.97%NM 15.23%EV -11.33%E -1.81%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.12%EV +1.57%E +0.298%K +0.367%G +0.006%4.9%2026-09-13 14:25
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.53%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -11.47%E -1.83%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -16.97%E -3.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 14:21
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -11.47%E -1.83%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 14:20
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 14.91%EV -12.03%E -1.94%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 18.94%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 05:31
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 14:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.52%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.10%EV -16.43%E -2.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 14:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.89%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.85%EV -16.43%E -2.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -12.14%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.65%EV -7.53%E -5.42%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.73%EV -17.84%E -3.08%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -8.86%E -6.47%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.75%EV -19.26%E -3.38%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.44I 69.44%NM 69.12%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-09-13 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.52%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-09-13 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-09-13 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-09-13 14:25
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.05%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.66%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.29%1.3%2026-09-13 14:25