Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF v Örgryte IS

Inicio: 2026-09-13 14:30 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 4–1 Örgryte IS

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Malmo FF (Local)

Predicción 66.53%1.50momio equitativo
EV -4.87%
Ventaja -3.40%
Kelly -11.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.24%66.51%66.49%69.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.381.401.4376.92%72.33%71.43%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Örgryte IS (Visitante)

Predicción 14.17%7.06momio equitativo
EV +13.32%
Ventaja +1.67%
Kelly +1.90%
Crecimiento +0.253%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.20%14.14%14.24%15.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.706.676.508.0017.54%14.99%15.38%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.31%5.18momio equitativo
EV +4.27%
Ventaja +0.790%
Kelly +0.970%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.08%19.35%19.27%21.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.304.784.755.4023.26%20.91%21.05%18.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Malmo FF (Local): 66.53%; Örgryte IS (Visitante): 14.17%; Empate: 19.31%. Para Örgryte IS (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.06. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +13.32%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +13.32%E +1.67%K +1.90%G +0.253%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +4.27%E +0.790%K +0.970%G +0.041%2.4%2026-09-13 05:00
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:25
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:01
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +6.24%E +0.832%K +0.960%G +0.060%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 05:00
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.89%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 13.21%EV +3.40%E +0.466%K +0.540%G +0.018%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV -1.52%E -0.299%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -10.19%E -7.55%K -29.11%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.77%EV +1.99%E +0.276%K +0.321%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 14:20
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -8.19%E -5.94%K -21.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 05:35
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 14:26
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -0.845%E -0.121%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 05:00
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.10%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.49%EV -2.26%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -16.01%E -3.68%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.10%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.49%EV -2.26%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -16.01%E -3.68%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.17%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -1.52%E -0.299%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 06:15
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.35%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.87%EV -12.19%E -9.23%K -38.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.27%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 05:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.06%EV -13.52%E -10.40%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.11%EV -4.39%E -0.650%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -9.25%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 05:00
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 13:20
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.36%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV +0.407%E +0.078%K +0.097%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 13:20
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:20
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -6.20%E -4.40%K -15.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -4.42%E -0.893%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:05
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 06:15
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:16
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:16
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -8.19%E -5.94%K -21.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 05:40
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -8.28%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -7.93%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 14:20
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.10%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.55%EV -8.64%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.35%EV -6.35%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.15%EV -5.53%E -3.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.68%EV -9.34%E -1.46%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:25
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.65%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.26I 15.97%NM 15.23%EV -11.33%E -1.81%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.12%EV +1.57%E +0.298%K +0.367%G +0.006%4.9%2026-09-13 14:25
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.53%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -11.47%E -1.83%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -16.97%E -3.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 14:21
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -11.47%E -1.83%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 14:20
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.21I 16.10%NM 14.91%EV -12.03%E -1.94%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 18.94%EV -5.58%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 05:31
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -4.87%E -3.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.46%E -0.691%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 14:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -6.86%E -4.90%K -17.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -16.39%E -3.79%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:20
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -15.01%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.11%E -2.91%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.52%EV -9.52%E -7.00%K -26.46%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.10%EV -16.43%E -2.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -11.18%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 14:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.89%EV -11.52%E -8.66%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.85%EV -16.43%E -2.78%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -12.14%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.65%EV -7.53%E -5.42%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.73%EV -17.84%E -3.08%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.39%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.54%EV -8.86%E -6.47%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.75%EV -19.26%E -3.38%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -7.32%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.44I 69.44%NM 69.12%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-09-13 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.52%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-09-13 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-09-13 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-09-13 14:25
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.05%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.66%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.29%1.3%2026-09-13 14:25