Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius v IFK Goteborg

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 12:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 4–1 IFK Goteborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 63.50%1.57fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.34%63.42%63.55%65.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.461.451.5471.94%68.35%68.97%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Goteborg (Visit)

Prediction 16.71%5.99fair odd
EV +4.43%
Edge +0.708%
Kelly +0.843%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.51%16.74%16.73%18.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.535.506.2521.05%18.09%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.79%5.05fair odd
EV +0.921%
Edge +0.181%
Kelly +0.225%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.54%19.84%19.71%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.524.505.1025.97%22.13%22.22%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Sirius (Local): 63.50%; IFK Goteborg (Visit): 16.71%; Draw: 19.79%. For IFK Goteborg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.56%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.54%EV +3.59%E +0.579%K +0.691%G +0.025%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV +0.921%E +0.181%K +0.225%G +0.002%3.8%2026-07-26 11:55
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.95%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.18%EV -0.252%E -0.042%K -0.051%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.87%EV -3.83%E -0.788%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 09:05
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.12%EV -2.93%E -0.504%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -9.96%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:56
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.37%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.32%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -3.04%E -0.620%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:45
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -4.03%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:30
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -4.03%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.05%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -15.90%E -3.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.05%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -15.90%E -3.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 11:41
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.45%EV -5.38%E -3.61%K -10.98%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.99%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -1.06%E -0.212%K -0.264%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.55%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.73%EV -4.43%E -0.774%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.72%EV -8.58%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-26 11:56
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -4.76%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -5.02%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:45
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.39%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.02%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:50
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:55
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:50
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.00%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:55
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:35
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:35
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:34
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -9.83%E -6.92%K -23.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -6.99%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:35
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.83%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -18.87%E -4.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.98%EV -7.29%E -4.99%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.92%EV -10.46%E -7.42%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.38%EV -7.98%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.39%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 11:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.39%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.20%EV -9.83%E -6.92%K -23.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -3.04%E -0.620%K -0.779%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -12.28%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.34%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.36%EV -12.28%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%EV -23.81%E -6.19%K -8.36%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-26 11:41
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.32%E -3.31%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.28%EV -11.73%E -8.44%K -30.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-26 11:25
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.91%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -20.64%E -4.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -6.00%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:55
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 64.31%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.29%1.6%2026-07-26 11:50