Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius v IFK Goteborg

Inicio: 2026-07-26 12:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 4–1 IFK Goteborg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius (Local)

Predicción 63.50%1.57momio equitativo
EV -2.20%
Ventaja -1.43%
Kelly -4.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.34%63.42%63.55%65.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.391.461.451.5471.94%68.35%68.97%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IFK Goteborg (Visitante)

Predicción 16.71%5.99momio equitativo
EV +4.43%
Ventaja +0.708%
Kelly +0.843%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.51%16.74%16.73%18.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.535.506.2521.05%18.09%18.18%16.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.79%5.05momio equitativo
EV +0.921%
Ventaja +0.181%
Kelly +0.225%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.54%19.84%19.71%22.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.524.505.1025.97%22.13%22.22%19.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: IK Sirius (Local): 63.50%; IFK Goteborg (Visitante): 16.71%; Empate: 19.79%. Para IFK Goteborg (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.99. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.43%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.95%EV -2.20%E -1.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.43%E +0.708%K +0.843%G +0.037%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:40
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.56%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.54%EV +3.59%E +0.579%K +0.691%G +0.025%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV +0.921%E +0.181%K +0.225%G +0.002%3.8%2026-07-26 11:55
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.95%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.18%EV -0.252%E -0.042%K -0.051%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.87%EV -3.83%E -0.788%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 09:05
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.12%EV -2.93%E -0.504%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -9.96%E -2.19%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:56
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.37%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.32%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -3.04%E -0.620%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:45
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -4.03%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:30
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -4.03%E -0.830%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.05%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -15.90%E -3.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.05%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -3.09%E -0.533%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -15.90%E -3.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 11:41
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.45%EV -5.38%E -3.61%K -10.98%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.99%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -1.06%E -0.212%K -0.264%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.93%E -0.683%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -16.89%E -4.02%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.55%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.73%EV -4.43%E -0.774%K -0.938%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.72%EV -8.58%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-26 11:56
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.78%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -4.76%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -5.02%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:45
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -6.43%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.39%EV -6.01%E -4.06%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.02%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:30
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:50
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:55
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:50
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -4.74%E -3.16%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -6.65%E -4.52%K -14.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.00%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:55
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:35
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:35
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:34
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 11:40
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -9.83%E -6.92%K -23.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -6.99%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:35
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.83%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -18.87%E -4.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -8.11%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.98%EV -7.29%E -4.99%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.92%EV -10.46%E -7.42%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.38%EV -7.98%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.39%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 11:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.39%EV -9.78%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -20.85%E -5.21%K -6.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.20%EV -9.83%E -6.92%K -23.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -11.45%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -3.04%E -0.620%K -0.779%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.56%EV -7.92%E -5.46%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -12.28%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.34%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.36%EV -12.28%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%EV -23.81%E -6.19%K -8.36%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-26 11:41
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.95%E -2.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 11:30
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.32%E -3.31%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.28%EV -11.73%E -8.44%K -30.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -8.97%E -1.95%K -2.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-26 11:25
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.91%EV -11.10%E -7.93%K -27.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -20.64%E -4.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -6.00%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 11:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.50%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.2%2026-07-26 11:55
Smarkets1.53I 65.36%NM 64.31%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.29%1.6%2026-07-26 11:50