La escuela de los momios

IF Elfsborg v Mjällby AIF

Inicio: 2026-05-21 17:00 UTC

Final: IF Elfsborg 1–1 Mjällby AIF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

IF Elfsborg (Local)

Predicción 43.57%2.30momio equitativo
EV +1.08%
Ventaja +0.464%
Kelly +0.815%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.39%43.48%43.71%45.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.122.102.3251.28%47.15%47.62%43.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mjällby AIF (Visitante)

Predicción 27.56%3.63momio equitativo
EV +1.98%
Ventaja +0.536%
Kelly +0.735%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.78%27.53%27.43%29.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.323.253.7033.33%30.14%30.77%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.87%3.46momio equitativo
EV -0.400%
Ventaja -0.116%
Kelly -0.163%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.85%28.99%28.87%30.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.153.153.4535.71%31.73%31.75%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV +1.98%E +0.536%K +0.735%G +0.015%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.00%EV -4.15%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-21 16:50
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 45.03%EV -7.20%E -3.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.99%EV +1.71%E +0.463%K +0.635%G +0.011%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.98%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-21 16:50
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -0.772%E -0.214%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 16:50
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.772%E -0.214%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 16:49
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.772%E -0.214%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 16:48
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.772%E -0.214%K -0.297%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 16:50
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.69%E -5.21%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 16:40
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-21 16:50
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -10.69%E -5.21%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 16:50
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-21 16:50
Unibet (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.40%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -0.400%E -0.116%K -0.163%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-21 16:40
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.40%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -0.400%E -0.116%K -0.163%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-21 16:40
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.40%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%EV -0.400%E -0.116%K -0.163%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-21 16:40
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -7.64%E -3.60%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 16:50
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -7.64%E -3.60%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 16:50
1xBet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.46%E -2.52%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.70%EV -5.46%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.53%EV -3.86%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 16:50
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.73%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-21 16:39
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 16:50
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -6.28%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-21 16:50
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.95%EV +0.204%E +0.089%K +0.157%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV -3.29%E -0.981%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-21 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -5.90%E -2.73%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 16:40
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-21 16:40
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -9.38%E -4.51%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -19.17%E -6.84%K -10.65%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-21 16:50
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 16:30
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 16:30
BetAnything2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -1.97%E -0.877%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 16:30
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 16:40
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -6.77%E -3.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 16:39
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -10.69%E -5.21%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-21 16:39
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.99%EV -11.56%E -5.69%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.53%EV -9.64%E -3.08%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-21 16:39
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-21 16:40
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -4.15%E -1.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-21 16:50
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.19%EV -9.93%E -3.18%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-21 16:49
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 16:40
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.67%EV -15.04%E -7.71%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.22%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-21 16:40
GTbets2.32I 43.10%NM 40.39%EV +1.08%E +0.464%K +0.815%G +0.009%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.38%EV -12.07%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 16:30
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -13.18%E -4.18%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-21 16:50
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -13.18%E -4.18%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.06%E -2.88%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-21 16:40
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -13.18%E -4.18%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.06%E -2.88%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-21 16:40
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -9.38%E -4.51%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -13.18%E -4.18%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 16:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -4.15%E -1.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-21 16:50
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -6.33%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.06%E -2.88%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-21 16:50
Virgin Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -10.25%E -4.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 16:40
LiveScore Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -10.25%E -4.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 16:40
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -14.55%E -4.69%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -9.06%E -2.88%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-21 16:40
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -17.31%E -5.77%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -13.39%E -4.46%K -6.70%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-21 16:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-05-21 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-21 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-05-21 16:50
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.41%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.17%2.3%2026-05-21 16:50