Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg v Kalmar FF

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00 UTC

Final: IF Elfsborg 1–0 Kalmar FF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg (Local)

Prediction 48.55%2.06fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.41%48.72%48.61%52.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.871.891.9758.14%53.37%52.91%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar FF (Visit)

Prediction 24.49%4.08fair odd
EV +15.11%
Edge +3.22%
Kelly +4.09%
Growth +0.617%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.71%24.31%24.58%25.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.913.804.7028.57%25.59%26.32%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV -0.252%
Edge -0.068%
Kelly -0.093%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.04%26.96%26.82%28.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.403.7031.25%29.38%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Elfsborg (Local): 48.55%; Kalmar FF (Visit): 24.49%; Draw: 26.96%. For Kalmar FF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.62%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.71%EV +15.11%E +3.22%K +4.09%G +0.617%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -1.60%E -0.438%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-13 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.62%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.71%EV +15.11%E +3.22%K +4.09%G +0.617%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -1.60%E -0.438%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-13 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.62%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.71%EV +15.11%E +3.22%K +4.09%G +0.617%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -1.60%E -0.438%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-13 11:35
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -12.61%E -7.01%K -15.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +7.77%E +1.77%K +2.28%G +0.177%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:35
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -15.04%E -8.59%K -20.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV +2.87%E +0.683%K +0.896%G +0.026%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 11:35
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.51%EV -15.53%E -8.92%K -20.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%EV +2.87%E +0.683%K +0.896%G +0.026%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.32%EV -16.50%E -9.59%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV +0.419%E +0.102%K +0.135%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 11:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.32%EV -16.50%E -9.59%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV +0.419%E +0.102%K +0.135%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.32%EV -16.50%E -9.59%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV +0.419%E +0.102%K +0.135%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 11:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.39%EV -4.84%E -2.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.03%E -0.508%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.39%EV -4.84%E -2.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.03%E -0.508%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 11:34
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.39%EV -4.84%E -2.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -2.03%E -0.508%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 11:35
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.60%EV -4.36%E -2.21%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.12%EV -2.76%E -0.696%K -0.931%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.28%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 11:51
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.80%EV -5.82%E -3.00%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.15%EV -3.99%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 11:40
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.73%EV -4.48%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.07%EV -0.252%E -0.068%K -0.093%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.33%E -2.73%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.48%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 11:51
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.33%E -2.73%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.48%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -11.16%E -6.10%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -4.48%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 11:45
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -6.79%E -3.53%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 11:40
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.33%E -2.73%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 11:35
Bovada🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.20%EV -5.82%E -3.00%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -5.70%E -1.48%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 11:55
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.82%E -3.00%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.24%EV -7.26%E -2.11%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 11:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -6.30%E -3.26%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 11:35
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 11:51
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 11:39
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 11:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 11:45
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 11:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.93%E -1.82%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 11:45
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.33%E -2.73%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 11:51
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.33%E -2.73%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 11:50
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.76%E -4.08%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.76%E -4.08%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.15%E -2.17%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 11:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -9.38%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 11:40
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -9.21%E -4.93%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.38%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:54
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -9.21%E -4.93%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.38%E -2.53%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:55
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.76%E -4.08%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:40
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.76%E -4.08%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -8.73%E -4.64%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -8.73%E -4.64%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 11:40
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -7.27%E -3.81%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 11:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.54%EV -10.67%E -5.80%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 11:35
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 11:35
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 11:35
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -10.18%E -5.51%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.73%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 11:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -11.16%E -6.10%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.03%EV -13.10%E -7.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.38%EV -11.83%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-13 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.30%EV -9.70%E -5.21%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -14.28%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 11:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 11:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 11:56
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-09-13 11:56
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-09-13 11:56