Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 14:30 UTC

Final: IF Elfsborg 1–3 IK Sirius

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Elfsborg (Local)

Prediction 27.26%3.67fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +0.949%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.62%27.27%27.32%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.403.8032.26%29.39%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Sirius (Visit)

Prediction 46.36%2.16fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.32%46.49%46.32%49.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.971.982.1056.18%50.89%50.51%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +0.737%
Kelly +0.992%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.96%26.23%26.36%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.9030.77%28.44%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Elfsborg (Local): 27.26%; IK Sirius (Visit): 46.36%; Draw: 26.38%. For IF Elfsborg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%EV +3.61%E +0.949%K +1.29%G +0.046%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.42%EV -8.68%E -4.40%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV +2.88%E +0.737%K +0.992%G +0.029%2.7%2026-07-19 13:50
Svenska Spel3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%EV +3.61%E +0.949%K +1.29%G +0.046%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.42%EV -8.68%E -4.40%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV +2.88%E +0.737%K +0.992%G +0.029%2.7%2026-07-19 13:50
ATG (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%EV +3.61%E +0.949%K +1.29%G +0.046%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.42%EV -8.68%E -4.40%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV +2.88%E +0.737%K +0.992%G +0.029%2.7%2026-07-19 13:50
Coolbet3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV +0.880%E +0.238%K +0.326%G +0.003%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.63%EV -8.21%E -4.15%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +0.238%E +0.063%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-19 14:00
1xBet3.61I 27.70%NM 26.34%EV -1.57%E -0.436%K -0.603%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.31%EV -6.82%E -3.39%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.34%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 14:25
BetUS3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.90%EV -6.82%E -3.39%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-19 14:25
LowVig.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.32%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 14:25
BetOnline.ag3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.32%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 14:25
BetAnything3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.32%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -11.00%E -5.73%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -2.40%E -0.649%K -0.889%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 13:50
Grosvenor3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -3.21%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -11.00%E -5.73%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -2.40%E -0.649%K -0.889%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 13:50
GTbets3.51I 28.49%NM 26.37%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.15%EV -6.62%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 14:10
NordicBet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 13:55
Betsson3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 13:55
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 14:00
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -10.53%E -5.46%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 13:45
Unibet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -12.39%E -6.55%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 13:50
Unibet (NL)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -12.39%E -6.55%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 13:50
Casumo3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -12.39%E -6.55%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 13:50
betPARX3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -12.39%E -6.55%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 13:50
Pinnacle3.45I 28.99%NM 27.77%EV -5.94%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.62%EV -2.65%E -1.26%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.61%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-19 14:15
DraftKings3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.94%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-19 13:50
SportsBet3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -5.94%E -1.72%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.25%EV -7.75%E -3.89%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-19 14:05
LeoVegas3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 14:05
Bovada3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.98%EV -5.43%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 14:19
Unibet (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 14:05
Everygame3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.97%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 14:20
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 14:15
888sport3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 14:25
William Hill3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 14:25
888sport (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 14:25
Mr Green (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 14:25
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-19 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-19 14:15
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.15%EV -13.31%E -7.12%K -15.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.36%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 13:50
TABtouch3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -14.24%E -7.70%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-19 13:50
PlayUp3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -8.66%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -8.21%E -4.15%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -12.95%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-19 14:25
Virgin Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -8.66%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.02%EV -14.70%E -7.99%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.61%EV -8.99%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-19 13:50
LiveScore Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -8.66%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.02%EV -14.70%E -7.99%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.61%EV -8.99%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-19 13:50
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 14:10
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.51%EV -10.07%E -5.19%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -8.99%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-19 14:05
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -14.27%E -4.39%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-19 14:05
Betclic (FR)3.27I 30.58%NM 27.55%EV -10.84%E -3.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.96%EV -9.14%E -4.66%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-19 14:05
PointsBet (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -11.39%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -2.40%E -0.649%K -0.889%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-19 14:05
PMU (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.34%EV -11.39%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.10%EV -17.49%E -9.82%K -22.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%EV -11.63%E -3.47%K -4.95%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-19 13:50
betfred_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 14:04
Bet Right3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 14:05
Winamax (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-19 14:05
betano_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-19 14:24
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-19 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 14:15
Coral3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 14:15
Neds3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.75%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.60%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-19 14:15
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -14.12%E -4.48%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -7.29%E -3.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-19 14:05
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.48%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.53%EV -10.07%E -5.19%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-19 14:05
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 28.01%EV -15.48%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.44%EV -13.31%E -7.12%K -15.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -10.31%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-19 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-19 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-19 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-19 14:25
Matchbook3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-07-19 14:20
Smarkets3.75I 26.67%NM 26.44%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.9%2026-07-19 14:20