Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hammarby IF v BK Hacken

2026-08-09 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hammarby IF (Local)

Predicción 61.45%1.63momio equitativo
EV -4.14%
Ventaja -2.65%
Kelly -7.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.44%61.41%61.54%62.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.491.501.5671.43%66.94%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

BK Hacken (Visitante)

Predicción 18.44%5.42momio equitativo
EV +3.29%
Ventaja +0.587%
Kelly +0.714%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.37%18.48%18.36%20.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.205.025.005.6023.81%19.93%20.00%17.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.10%4.97momio equitativo
EV -2.90%
Ventaja -0.600%
Kelly -0.756%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.20%20.11%20.10%21.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.494.504.8325.00%22.29%22.22%20.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Hammarby IF (Local): 61.45%; BK Hacken (Visitante): 18.44%; Empate: 20.10%. Para BK Hacken (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.42. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.60, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.29%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.36%EV -4.14%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +3.29%E +0.587%K +0.714%G +0.023%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%EV -3.50%E -0.729%K -0.921%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-02 12:20
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 62.36%EV -4.14%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +3.29%E +0.587%K +0.714%G +0.023%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%EV -3.50%E -0.729%K -0.921%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-02 12:20
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.36%EV -4.14%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +3.29%E +0.587%K +0.714%G +0.023%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%EV -3.50%E -0.729%K -0.921%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-02 12:19
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.25%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.45%EV -1.32%E -0.248%K -0.305%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 17:49
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 62.25%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.45%EV -1.32%E -0.248%K -0.305%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -7.21%E -4.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -2.25%E -0.424%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 12:20
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 61.71%EV -7.21%E -4.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.58%EV -2.25%E -0.424%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 12:20
1xBet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.07%EV -7.21%E -4.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 17.99%EV -3.91%E -0.750%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -5.51%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 17:04
Pinnacle1.51I 66.23%NM 62.38%EV -7.21%E -4.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.50%EV -2.90%E -0.600%K -0.756%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 17:20
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 61.78%EV -7.21%E -4.77%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 13:19
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:19
Casumo1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:20
Unibet (NL)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:20
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.09%E -0.787%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:19
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.45%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -5.94%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 13:20
DraftKings1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -5.51%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 16:59
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -5.51%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 20:05
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 13:30
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:25
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 17:00
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 17:00
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 17:00
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -11.54%E -2.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 17:00
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 60.97%EV -9.05%E -6.12%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.98%EV -13.55%E -3.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 12:20
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 61.13%EV -9.67%E -6.58%K -20.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -7.78%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -13.55%E -3.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 12:20
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 61.31%EV -5.98%E -3.91%K -11.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.50%E -0.729%K -0.921%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 17:04
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 13:30
LiveScore Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 61.08%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -14.56%E -3.43%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-02 12:20
Virgin Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 61.08%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -9.62%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -14.56%E -3.43%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-02 12:20
Unibet (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.59%EV -6.59%E -4.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -12.39%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -7.52%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 13:24
Betway1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -9.05%E -6.12%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -12.39%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -4.51%E -0.948%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 17:40
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 61.12%EV -13.97%E -9.98%K -34.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.01%EV -12.39%E -2.61%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.87%EV -17.57%E -4.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-02 12:20
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.08%EV -10.28%E -7.04%K -22.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.28%EV -16.08%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.64%EV -14.56%E -3.43%K -4.48%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 17:08
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.39%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.21%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.25%EV -16.08%E -3.53%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.36%EV -13.55%E -3.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-02 13:24
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 59.52%EV -11.51%E -7.99%K -26.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -17.00%E -3.78%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43%EV -19.58%E -4.90%K -6.53%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-02 13:19
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.38%EV -10.28%E -7.04%K -22.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -18.85%E -4.28%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -9.53%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-02 13:24
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 59.44%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.52%EV -22.54%E -5.37%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.04%EV -13.55%E -3.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 13:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 59.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.49%13.5%2026-08-02 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.18%18.2%2026-08-02 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.18%18.2%2026-08-02 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.18%18.2%2026-08-02 17:05