Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hammarby IF v BK Hacken

Inicio: 2026-08-09 12:00 UTC

Final: Hammarby IF 3–0 BK Hacken

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hammarby IF (Local)

Predicción 61.40%1.63momio equitativo
EV -3.60%
Ventaja -2.30%
Kelly -6.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.53%61.46%61.39%63.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.501.501.5772.46%66.78%66.67%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

BK Hacken (Visitante)

Predicción 18.76%5.33momio equitativo
EV +12.55%
Ventaja +2.09%
Kelly +2.51%
Crecimiento +0.315%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.27%18.68%18.76%20.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.335.085.006.0023.09%19.70%20.00%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.84%5.04momio equitativo
EV -2.77%
Ventaja -0.565%
Kelly -0.709%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.10%19.86%19.85%21.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.564.504.9024.39%21.94%22.22%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hammarby IF (Local): 61.40%; BK Hacken (Visitante): 18.76%; Empate: 19.84%. Para BK Hacken (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.33. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +12.55%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.39%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.27%EV +12.55%E +2.09%K +2.51%G +0.315%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.34%EV -4.75%E -0.990%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.39%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.27%EV +12.55%E +2.09%K +2.51%G +0.315%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.34%EV -4.75%E -0.990%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-09 11:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.39%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.27%EV +12.55%E +2.09%K +2.51%G +0.315%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.34%EV -4.75%E -0.990%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-09 11:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV +3.17%E +0.576%K +0.704%G +0.022%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV +3.17%E +0.576%K +0.704%G +0.022%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.09%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV +1.29%E +0.240%K +0.294%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.09%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV +1.29%E +0.240%K +0.294%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.09%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV +1.29%E +0.240%K +0.294%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 11:24
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.09%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV +1.29%E +0.240%K +0.294%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.48%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.77%EV +0.919%E +0.171%K +0.210%G +0.002%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.75%EV -3.96%E -0.818%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-09 11:55
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.51%EV -3.60%E -2.30%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.86%EV -0.207%E -0.039%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.64%EV -12.89%E -2.94%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 11:49
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.24%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV -0.582%E -0.110%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -2.77%E -0.565%K -0.709%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:54
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.67%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -1.52%E -0.290%K -0.358%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.41%EV -9.74%E -6.63%K -20.73%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -2.46%E -0.473%K -0.585%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 11:45
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.88%EV -10.97%E -7.57%K -24.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.25%EV -2.46%E -0.473%K -0.585%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -14.67%E -3.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:25
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.04%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -2.46%E -0.473%K -0.585%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -14.67%E -3.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 11:25
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.01%EV -4.83%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.47%EV -3.96%E -0.773%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.51%EV -8.52%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 05:55
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.29%EV -3.60%E -2.30%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.87%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.84%EV -3.76%E -0.775%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 09:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.36%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.36%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:10
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.36%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:35
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.36%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:09
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.59%EV -9.74%E -6.63%K -20.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.68%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.90%EV -15.67%E -3.69%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.68%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.42%EV -4.33%E -0.850%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.90%EV -15.67%E -3.69%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:24
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -2.77%E -0.565%K -0.709%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:20
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -4.75%E -0.990%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 04:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -6.67%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:50
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 10:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -5.74%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 16:45
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 05:15
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 05:15
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 11:50
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.21%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 11:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.03%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -8.09%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -12.69%E -2.88%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.77%EV -10.36%E -7.09%K -22.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%EV -8.09%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.82%EV -9.71%E -2.13%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 11:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 61.80%EV -15.27%E -11.07%K -40.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.40%EV -8.09%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.80%EV -18.64%E -4.55%K -6.01%G +0.000%17.3%2026-08-09 11:25
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.37%EV -4.83%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.29%EV -9.02%E -1.86%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 11:55
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.37%EV -4.83%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.29%EV -9.02%E -1.86%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 11:55
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 11:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:04
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:05
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.24%EV -9.74%E -6.63%K -20.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -9.96%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:49
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.76%EV -6.67%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -10.90%E -2.29%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -14.67%E -3.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:55
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -10.90%E -2.29%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -14.08%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-09 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -11.84%E -2.52%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.01%EV -9.74%E -6.63%K -20.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -13.71%E -2.98%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 11:45
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.53%EV -7.90%E -5.27%K -15.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -15.59%E -3.46%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -14.08%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 11:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.51%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -18.78%E -4.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.36%EV -10.70%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-09 11:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.43%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%0.4%2026-08-09 11:55
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.43%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%0.4%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.22%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%0.7%2026-08-09 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.22%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%0.7%2026-08-09 11:55
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.52%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.90%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.58%1.6%2026-08-09 11:55