Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgardens IF v Malmo FF

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Djurgardens IF 0–1 Malmo FF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgardens IF (Local)

Prediction 39.93%2.50fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.84%39.91%39.97%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.312.302.4345.87%43.31%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmo FF (Visit)

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd
EV -0.563%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.281%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%33.15%33.09%34.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.803.0038.46%35.74%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.92%3.71fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%26.94%26.93%28.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.403.6033.33%29.50%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Djurgardens IF (Local): 39.93%; Malmo FF (Visit): 33.15%; Draw: 26.92%. For Malmo FF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.563%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.24%EV -2.97%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.60%EV -0.563%E -0.188%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-17 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.24%EV -2.97%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.60%EV -0.563%E -0.188%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-17 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.24%EV -2.97%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.60%EV -0.563%E -0.188%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -3.07%E -0.853%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-17 16:44
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.59%EV -3.37%E -1.39%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.04%EV -3.88%E -1.34%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-17 15:44
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.49%EV -4.17%E -1.74%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.46%EV -3.21%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.04%EV -8.99%E -2.66%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 23:39
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.17%E -1.74%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 13:39
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.13%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.07%EV -3.88%E -1.34%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.61%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%EV -4.97%E -2.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.44%EV -2.22%E -0.753%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.34%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-17 16:45
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -4.97%E -2.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.28%EV -5.77%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.21%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 16:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.28%EV -5.77%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.21%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 16:09
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 16:50
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 16:54
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -3.88%E -1.34%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 16:39
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 16:39
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.17%E -2.62%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:55
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.97%EV -6.56%E -2.81%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.36%EV -4.21%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.67%EV -8.99%E -2.66%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 16:49
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.36%E -3.17%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.36%E -3.17%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:45
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.36%E -3.17%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:45
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.36%E -3.17%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:44
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.06%EV -7.36%E -3.17%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.61%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 16:44
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -4.54%E -1.58%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 16:39
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -4.54%E -1.58%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 15:49
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 16:45
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 16:44
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 16:30
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-17 14:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 16:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -12.83%E -4.88%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-17 16:54
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -12.83%E -4.88%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-17 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -13.16%E -5.02%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-17 16:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.16%E -3.55%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -13.16%E -5.02%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-17 16:55
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -8.96%E -3.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -5.53%E -1.94%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 16:44
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.46%E -2.49%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 14:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.51%E -3.89%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -7.11%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-17 12:55
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -12.49%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-17 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -10.16%E -4.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -8.85%E -3.22%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-17 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -10.51%E -3.89%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -13.84%E -4.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-17 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -13.82%E -5.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -9.80%E -2.93%K -4.17%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-17 12:54
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.90%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -13.16%E -5.02%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -11.15%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.30%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.25%EV -13.82%E -5.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.45%EV -15.19%E -4.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-17 16:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -12.83%E -4.88%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -19.23%E -6.41%K -9.61%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-17 16:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.52%EV -12.95%E -5.94%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.13%EV -13.82%E -5.32%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.35%EV -15.19%E -4.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-17 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%1.2%2026-04-17 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%1.2%2026-04-17 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%1.2%2026-04-17 16:30
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%1.2%2026-04-17 16:54
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.8%2026-04-17 16:54