Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Degerfors IF v Mjällby AIF

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:02 UTC

Final: Degerfors IF 1–4 Mjällby AIF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Degerfors IF (Local)

Prediction 27.02%3.70fair odd
EV +8.09%
Edge +2.02%
Kelly +2.70%
Growth +0.218%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%26.94%26.99%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.494.0031.25%28.50%28.65%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mjällby AIF (Visit)

Prediction 44.19%2.26fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.64%44.19%44.22%47.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.052.1554.05%48.69%48.66%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV -0.686%
Edge -0.199%
Kelly -0.280%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.95%28.87%28.79%30.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.213.253.4535.71%31.13%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Degerfors IF (Local): 27.02%; Mjällby AIF (Visit): 44.19%; Draw: 28.79%. For Degerfors IF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.38%EV +8.09%E +2.02%K +2.70%G +0.218%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.35%EV -8.97%E -4.35%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%EV -0.686%E -0.199%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-09 12:59
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV +8.09%E +2.02%K +2.70%G +0.218%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.47%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%EV -0.686%E -0.199%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 12:59
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%EV +8.09%E +2.02%K +2.70%G +0.218%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.47%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%EV -0.686%E -0.199%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV +5.39%E +1.38%K +1.86%G +0.100%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -2.13%E -0.625%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 12:59
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV +4.04%E +1.05%K +1.42%G +0.057%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 12:59
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV +4.04%E +1.05%K +1.42%G +0.057%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 13:00
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV +4.04%E +1.05%K +1.42%G +0.057%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 13:00
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV +4.04%E +1.05%K +1.42%G +0.057%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 12:59
betPARX🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV +4.04%E +1.05%K +1.42%G +0.057%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 13:00
LeoVegas🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV +2.69%E +0.708%K +0.961%G +0.026%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -14.71%E -7.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 12:59
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV +2.69%E +0.708%K +0.961%G +0.026%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -14.71%E -7.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 12:59
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV +1.34%E +0.357%K +0.487%G +0.007%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -15.60%E -8.17%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV +1.34%E +0.357%K +0.487%G +0.007%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -15.60%E -8.17%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 12:59
Coolbet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -1.36%E -0.374%K -0.514%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.83%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%EV -3.56%E -1.06%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 12:59
BetRivers🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.36%E -0.374%K -0.514%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 12:53
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -2.71%E -0.754%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -18.25%E -9.86%K -21.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -9.32%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 13:00
Pinnacle🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.26%E -0.909%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.82%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.38%EV -2.70%E -0.799%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 12:59
1xBet🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.57%EV -3.53%E -0.987%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.33%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.10%EV -6.16%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 12:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 12:59
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 12:59
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.05%EV -5.43%E -2.54%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 12:59
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.60%EV -6.76%E -3.20%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 12:56
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 12:59
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 12:59
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -5.42%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 12:59
GTbets🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.90%EV -5.96%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.57%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.54%EV -5.58%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.77%E -1.96%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 13:00
Everygame🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.77%E -1.96%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 12:59
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 12:59
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.65%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.38%EV -10.19%E -3.26%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 12:58
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -8.12%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-09 13:00
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.32%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 12:59
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.32%E -2.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.47%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 13:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 12:59
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 12:59
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -4.99%E -2.32%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 12:59
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 12:59
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 13:00
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 13:00
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 12:59
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -11.62%E -5.81%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -13.64%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.60%EV -10.82%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.23%EV -15.60%E -8.17%K -17.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.17%EV -19.40%E -6.93%K -10.78%G +0.000%18.4%2026-05-09 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 27.21%EV -11.36%E -3.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.18%EV -10.74%E -5.32%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.61%EV -10.19%E -3.26%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -7.20%E -3.43%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -9.32%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 13:00
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -8.09%E -3.89%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -9.32%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 12:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.49%EV -12.50%E -6.32%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-09 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -12.17%E -3.75%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.99%EV -14.27%E -7.36%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-09 12:59
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.52%E -4.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -9.41%E -4.59%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-09 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-05-09 12:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-05-09 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.80%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-05-09 13:00
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.61%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-05-09 13:00
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.79%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%2.3%2026-05-09 13:00